基于综合集成方法论的产业技术路线图研究

提出产业技术路线图是一个开放的复杂巨系统,应当用综合集成方法去解释技术路线图绘制过程的共识涌现现象。阐明了产业技术路线图绘制过程就是一个复杂系统建模过程,把产业技术路线图研讨会看成综合集成研讨厅体系,因此应当运用钱学森提出的处理开放复杂巨系统的方法——从定性到定量的综合集成方法。最后建立了产业技术路线图共识系统涌现模型。

Industry Technology Roadmapping research Based on Meta-Synthesis Methodology

This paper proposes an idea that industry technology roadmapping could be considered to be an open complex giant system,from which consensus emergence can be demonstrated and handled by meta-synthesis.It clarified industry technology roadmapping process is actually a complex system modeling,technology roadmapping itself should be a hall for workshop of Meta-synthetic engineering-HWMSE.Therefore,it should be handled by meta-synthesis proprosed by Qian Xuesen,from qualitative to quantitative methodology.And finally,TRM consensus system emergence model is built.