科技服务业产出测算：指标确立、数据收集与未来预测

科技服务业产出测算是对科技服务业产出数据的统计与分析，加强科技服务业产出数据的规范统计和应用分析可为我国政府调整产业政策提供重要数据支撑。以科技服务业产出测算为研究对象，结合学者观点、国家标准及各级政府相关产业政策，提出将分支产业作为初始指标的横向统计思路，构建科技服务业产出测算指标体系。在数据收集方面，强调要做好“收”与“填”两个基本工作；在指标确立和数据收集基础上，进一步提出未来预测的两种方法，以此作为科技服务业产出数据预测的初步探索；提出应从统一数据统计标准、完善数据调查与公开制度、加强数据资源开发3个方面建立健全我国科技服务业产出数据测量与管理体制机制。

Research on the Measurement and Calculation of the Output of the Science and Technology Service Industry:Indicator Establishment,Data Collection and Future Forecast

The output measurement of science and technology service industry is the statistics and analysis of the output data of science and technology service industry, and strengthening the standardized statistics and application analysis of the output data of science and technology service industry will provide important data support for our government to adjust the industrial policy. By combining the views of scholars, national standards and relevant industrial policies of governments at all levels, we propose the horizontal statistical idea of using branch industries as initial indicators and construct an indicator system for measuring the output of science and technology service industry. In terms of data collection, the two basic tasks of "collection" and "filling" are emphasized. On the basis of the establishment of indicators and data collection, two methods of future forecasting are further proposed as the initial exploration of science and technology service industry output data forecasting. Finally, it is proposed to establish a sound institutional mechanism for measuring and managing the output data of science and technology service industry in China in three aspects: unifying data statistical standards, improving data investigation and disclosure, and strengthening data resource development.