中国创新要素集聚能力的时空格局与动态演化

基于中国内地30个省级区域2002-2018年面板数据，综合运用基尼系数及空间分解、探索性空间分析、核密度估计、空间马尔可夫链和潜马尔可夫模型，将工业企业、科研机构和高校作为创新主体，研究创新要素集聚能力的时空格局和动态演化规律。研究发现：①工业企业和高校创新要素集聚能力区域差距较小,科研机构创新要素集聚能力区域差距较大；②创新要素集聚能力区域差距来源于非邻区域，工业企业、科研机构和高校创新要素集聚能力整体呈正向空间集聚，其空间分布呈现不同程度的极化现象；③在样本期，工业企业、科研机构和高校创新要素集聚能力经历了高、中、低3个状态，创新要素集聚能力状态变迁呈现出路径依赖和空间依赖特征。

The Spatial-temporal Pattern and Dynamic Evolution of The Innovation Factors Agglomeration Capacity in China

This study takes industrial enterprises, research institutes, and universities as the main regional innovation subjects and studies the spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic evolution of their innovation factors agglomeration capacity based on the data collected from 30 provinces in China during 2000-2018.The Gini coefficient and spatial decomposition, exploratory spatial analysis, kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chain, and hidden Markov model are comprehensively used.Research finds that: (1) there is a small regional gap in the capacity of innovation factors agglomeration between industrial enterprises and universities.And the regional gap in the capacity of innovation factors agglomeration between scientific institutes is relatively large.(2) The regional disparity of innovation factors agglomeration capacity of three kinds of innovation subjects mainly comes from the disparity between non-adjacent regions’ innovation factors agglomeration capacity.The innovation factors agglomeration capacity of three kinds of innovation subjects shows positive spatial convergence, and their spatial distribution is characterized by different polarization phenomena and trends.(3) the innovation factors agglomeration capacity of industrial enterprises, research institutes, and universities have experienced three states in the sample period, which are high, medium, and low, respectively.The state transition of innovation factors agglomeration capacity shows the characteristics of path-dependence and space-dependence.