中国跨越中等收入陷阱潜力研究

当前，中国正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期，国家创新能力不足将导致经济增速停滞或倒退，即陷入中等收入陷阱。为研究跨越陷阱路径，在Keun Lee理论的基础上，通过分析中日韩等国家及地区近30年来在美国专利商标局申请专利的技术循环周期后发现，中国已跨越短技术循环周期拐点，正迈向长技术循环周期，表明中国已具备跨越中等收入陷阱的能力。引入人均GDP、全球创新指数、全要素生产率等指标进一步验证得出一致结论。最后，提出提升和永续保障中国创新能力的建议。

Research for the Potentiality of China to Leapfrog the Middle Income Trap

At present, China is in the juncture of changing the mode of development, optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth momentum. The juncture means that it is possible to be stagnation or retrogression of national economy as the national innovation ability is insufficient, then sticking in the middle income trap (MIC) for a long time. To avoid this trap, this paper calculates and compares patents' technology cycle time(TCT), based on Keun Lee theory, of China, Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions from data base of the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office in recent 30 years. Combining the TCT with the GDP per capita, the paper concludes that China has crossed short TCT's point, and moving toward long TCT at present, which indicates that China has the capability to avoid the MIC. Then introduces the index of per capita GDP, global innovation index (GII) and TFP as further tests and draws a consistent conclusion. Finally, suggestions for enhancing and sustainability of China's innovation capability are put forward.