基于分段线性模型的科研项目论文产出评价研究

以1994—2013年杰青基金地学项目为研究对象，首先，建立科研论文发表量和顶级期刊论文发表量评价指标，衡量科研成果产出能力和创新性科研成果产出能力；其次，引入“科技期刊收录膨胀率”消除因WOS中SCI和SSCI收录期刊增加对科技论文带来的放大式增长；最后，通过构建分段线性回归模型对杰青科学家科研论文发表量和顶级期刊论文发表量进行分析。结果表明，杰青基金资助后，66.5%的杰青科学家科研论文发表量和顶级期刊论文发表量都得到了提高，21.6%的杰青科学家只提高了科研论文发表量，7%的杰青科学家只提高了顶级期刊论文发表量，48%的杰青科学家科研论文发表量和顶级期刊论文发表量均未提高。最后，结合已有杰青科学家访谈资料，从科研环境、激励、考评机制等角度对造成上述结果的可能原因进行分析。

The Evaluaiton Research of the Project Paper Output based on Piecewise Linear Model：Empirical Study based on the National Science Funds of Earth Science Project for Distinguished Young Scholars

The object of the empirical study is the the national science funds of earth science project for distinguished young scholars (Jie Qing) project between 1994-2013.The study firstly establish two evaluation index in order to measure the abilities of scientific research output and innovative scientific research output capacity.Secondly, use the "inflation-ajusted publicationsh"to eliminate the inlfation which because of the WOS increase the SCI and SSCI journal numbers.Finally, by building a piecewise linear regression model analysis the inflation ajusted publications.The resluts show that the 68.3% of all Jie Qing scientists all publicaitons and top journal publications both improvement, 19.8% of Jie Qing scientists only raised the all publications, 7.5% of all Jie Qing scientists only raised the top journal publications, 4.4% of the jieqing scientists all publicaiotns and top publictions both did not raise.To explain the above 4 conclusions, the study analysis the existing Jie Qing scientists interview study, and explain the reason of the 4 conlusions from the aspects of scientific research environment, motivation, evaluation mechanism.