低碳约束对产业集聚的门槛效应分析

产业集聚作为重要的产业组织形式，其影响因素一直是理论界研究的重点，但鲜有学者直接研究低碳约束对产业集聚的影响。基于2000-2012年中国内地30个省（市、自治区）的数据，利用门槛回归方法，从人均收入和人力资本两个角度，检验了低碳约束对产业集聚的门槛效应。收入门槛的检验结果表明，在中、低收入阶段，低碳约束抑制产业集聚，而在高收入阶段，低碳约束则显著促进地区产业集聚；人力资本门槛的检验结果表明，在高人力资本阶段，低碳约束能够显著带动地区产业集聚，在中低人力资本阶段则相反。

The Threshold Effect of Low Carbon Constraints on Industrial Agglomeration---An Empirical Analysis of the Provincial Panel Data in China

As an important form of industrial organization ,industrial agglomeration has always been the focus of theoretical research ,but few scholars directly study the impact of low carbon constraints on industrial agglomeration .For this rea‐son ,we choose the industrial data of China's 30 provinces during 2000 -2012 ,using threshold regression method ,and from two angles of per capita income and human capital ,testing threshold effects of carbon constraints on industrial agglomera‐tion .Income threshold test show s that in middle‐income and low‐income phase ,low carbon constraints inhibiting agglom‐eration .And in the phase of high‐income ,low carbon constraint significantly increased area industrial agglomeration ;hu‐man capital threshold test show s that at the stage of high human capital ,low carbon constraint can significantly promote the regional industrial agglomeration ,how ever ,the effect is opposite in low and middle human capital stage .Limited by regional average income and human capital level ,the government implement low carbon constraints now will have a nega‐tive impact on industrial agglomeration .Therefore ,accelerating the local economic development ,enhancing the level of human capital ,and promoting low‐carbon technology innovation is the main direction of industrial agglomeration in the fu‐ture .