我国军民融合产业对制造业运行的动态响应

基于db（n=5）小波函数，对我国证券市场军工航天板块收盘价与成交量自2005年6月以来的2 512个交易日进行时序模拟，通过对低频信号进行提取后认为，我国军工航天产业发展对宏观经济政策的依赖度较高，军民融合产业整体仍面临着深度发展的良好机遇。基于VAR模型，对我国制造业宏观经济运行指标进行了动态模拟、脉冲函数响应分析与方差分解。结果显示，制造业新产品订单指数可作为研究我国制造业经济运行的重要指标，经对数化后其每提升1个百分点或高端装备制造业指数每增长1个百分点，相应的军民融合产业指数分别提高2.86%和1.22%。为提升我国制造业尤其是高端装备制造业水平，应促进军民融合产业深度发展。

Response of the Civil Military Integration Industry to the Manufacturing Industry---Based on the Interpretation of the VAR Models Variables and the Regression Analysis of OLS Model

Based db (n=5) wavelet function ,military aerospace sector in China securities market daily closing price since June 2005 the 2 512 trading timing simulation ,through the low‐frequency signal extracted view ,it was showed that the Military & Aerospace Industry (MAI) development depend deeply on the macro‐economy policies ,and it faced the devel‐opment strategy opportunity .Based on VAR model ,macroeconomic indicators for the dynamic simulation of manufactur‐ing ,impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition .It was showed that manufacturing new product orders index (PMIO) can be used as an important indicator to study the economic operation of Chinese manufacturing industry , and the logarithmic PMIO (LPMIO) or high‐end equipment manufacturing industry index rose 1 percentage point ,then the corresponding civil military integration industry index increased by 2 .86% and 1 .22% respectively .Additionally ,in order to promote the Chinese manufacturing industry ,especially high‐end equipment manufacturing industry ,and acceler‐ate civil military industry deeply integration ,some suggestions were given for harmonizing the reform of state‐owned mili‐tary enterprises .