粤港澳大湾区创新生态系统内部耦合时空演化及空间收敛分析

在构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下，高效协同的区域创新体系有助于将粤港澳大湾区三地建设成为具有全球影响力的科技创新中心。通过构建创新生态系统综合评价指标体系，采用耦合协调模型和空间计量模型，实证检验大湾区10个城市2007-2019年创新生态系统内部耦合协调水平、时空跃迁特征以及收敛性。研究发现，大湾区整体及各城市耦合协调度呈上升趋势，基本实现从失调衰退区到协调过渡区的转化，具体可划分为4个等级层次；大湾区创新生态系统协调耦合度存在显著的绝对β与条件β收敛趋势，即最终收敛于同一稳态水平，且城市间差距逐渐缩小。其中，经济发展水平、对外交流水平、人力资本水平对创新生态系统协调耦合度起显著正向作用。

Space-time Transition and Convergence Trend Research on Internal Coupling Coordination of Innovation Ecosystem in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

In order to construct the new development dynamic where domestic flows are the foundation of the double development dynamic and a discernible strength of major economies, constructing an efficient and coordinated regional innovation system will help to build the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area into a scientific and technological innovation center with global influence. After constructing a comprehensive index evaluation system of innovation ecosystem, using a coupling coordination model and a spatial measurement model, this paper tested the internal coupling coordination level of the innovation ecosystem in 10 cities in the Greater Bay Area from 2007 to 2019, as well as its space-time transition characteristics and convergence trend. The study found that the degree of internal coupling coordination in the Greater Bay Area as a whole and in each city has shown a rising trend, basically realizing the transition from imbalance recession period to harmonious transition period, and the degree of internal coupling coordination presents four levels. There is a significant absolute and conditional β convergence trend in the coupling coordination degree of the innovation ecosystem in the Greater Bay Area, which means that it will eventually converge to the same steady-state level, and the gap between cities will gradually narrow. Among them, the level of economic development, foreign exchanges and human capital play a significant positive role in the coupling and coordination of the innovation ecosystem.