中国城市科技人才集聚促进了全要素生产率增长吗——来自285个地级市的经验研究

基于2005—2018年中国内地285个地级市数据，对城市科技人才集聚与全要素生产率（简称“TFP”）进行测度分析，实证考察科技人才集聚对TFP的影响。结果表明：①城市科技人才集聚与TFP空间分异特征显著，但二者具有较强的时空一致性，即科技人才集聚特征显著的城市，其TFP也相对稳定；②城市科技人才集聚对TFP的影响呈倒U型，但研究期内大多数城市仍处于集聚效应占主导阶段,科技人才集聚通过提升城市技术进步水平促进TFP增长，而科技人才集聚对技术效率的影响呈倒U型；③不同类型城市科技人才集聚对其TFP影响的异质性显著，且适宜集聚区间也存在差异。省会城市及一、二线城市等优势特征显著的城市所能承受的科技人才集聚规模上限更高，有利于通过释放集聚红利促进TFP增长，而非省会城市、三线及以下城市等则拐点值较低。

Does the Agglomeration of Scientific and Technological Talent in China's Cities Contribute to Total Factor Productivity Growth ——Empirical Studies from 285 Cities in China

Based on the data of 285 cities in China from 2005 to 2018, the paper measures and analyzes the spatial characteristics of the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents and the total factor productivity growth (TFP), and empirically investigates the influence of the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents on the growth of TFP. The research showed:①the spatial differentiation between the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents and the growth of TFP is obvious, but the two have a strong spatial and temporal consistency;②the influence of the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents on the growth of TFP of cities is an "inverted U" shape, but most cities are still in the dominant stage of agglomeration effect during the study period. The agglomeration of scientific and technological talents promotes the improvement of TFP mainly by improving the technological progress, while the influence of the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents on technological efficiency presents an "inverted U" pattern;③the influence of the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents in different types of cities on the growth of TFP is heterogeneous, and there are also differences in the appropriate agglomeration range. Provincial capitals, first-tier and second-tier cities and other cities with obvious advantages have a higher upper limit on the agglomeration scale of scientific and technological talents. However, the inflection point value of non-provincial capital cities and third-tier cities is lower.