19个国家级城市群数字经济发展水平测度及空间格局研究

以“十四五”规划布局的19个国家级城市群为对象，结合模糊集合思想构建数字经济发展评价指标体系，利用遥感数据和地理信息系统技术建立格网化数据集，通过应用投影寻踪模型、Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法、探索性空间自相关方法和修正的引力模型，测度2013—2019年19个国家级城市群数字经济发展水平，对其整体发展态势、区域差异及空间格局进行考察。研究结果表明，19个国家级城市群数字经济发展态势良好，整体呈现以递次转移为主、跨级转移为辅的演化特征；协同性欠佳，城市群间异质化、城市群内同质化特征逐渐显现；数字经济发展呈现出由弱到强的空间集聚特征，以低—低集聚为主、高—高集聚次之的局域空间集聚特征始终存在；数字经济发展呈现为以京津冀—长三角—珠三角为三大集聚的“高地连绵区”和东北、西北两大“低谷连绵区”的空间发展态势，以“胡焕庸线”为分界的东密西疏空间关联格局已经形成。

The Measurement and Spatial Pattern of Digital Economy Development:A Case of 19 National-level Urban Agglomerations

The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and Vision 2035 of the People's Republic of China has clearly planned and laid out 19 national-level urban agglomerations, striving to form a strategic urbanization pattern of "two horizontal and three vertical". As a dynamic core in the regional economic development pattern, urban agglomeration can optimize resource allocation, attract agglomeration, and diffuse radiation in a larger area, and it has become a strategic support for the coordinated development of regional economy in China. At the same time, the digital economy, as the most promising field in China's current economic development, continues to extend the depth and breadth of integration with various fields of economic and social development. According to the Blue Book of China's Urban Digital Economy Index (2021), the top ten cities in the digital economy index in 2021 are mainly located in the more developed Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta Bay urban agglomerations. The unbalanced development of the digital economy in urban agglomerations has become an important incentive to widen the economic development gap between regions. In order to explore the determinants of accelerating the bridging of the digital economy divide in urban agglomerations, shaping China's regional economic growth poles and promoting coordinated regional development, this paper examines the digital economy development trends, regional differences and spatial patterns of urban agglomerations by measuring the digital economy development levels of 19 national urban agglomerations laid out in the 14th Five-Year Plan.#br#A series of achievements have emerged in the measurement of the digital economy scale. In terms of measurement methods, the existing research can be roughly classified into three categories: value-added method, index method and satellite account method. Comparatively speaking, since the digital economy is a kind of convergence economy, the efficiency improvement of traditional industries caused by the penetration and synergy of digital technology cannot be directly measured by the industry GDP accounting method. Simultaneously, the compilation of digital economy satellite accounts is still in the theoretical stage, with several problems in industry definition, data collection and adjustment of supply. Therefore, most studies measure the scale of the digital economy by compiling the digital economy development index. But there are still some problems. First, the types of indicators are jumbled and there is too much duplication of information among indicators. Second, most of the basic data are socio-economic data based on administrative divisions at the grassroots level, without taking into account the influence of administrative boundary changes and physical-geographical interactions. Third, the research objects are mostly limited to the entire country or a certain key region, and there is still a lack of dynamic consideration of the development of the digital economy at the urban agglomeration level and its spatial pattern. #br#Given that, the paper takes the 19 national-level urban agglomerations laid out in the "14th Five-Year Plan" as the research object, construct a digital economy development evaluation system by using fuzzy sets, and establishes a grid data set with the aid of remote sensing data and geographic information system. Moreover, projection pursuit model, Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition method, exploratory spatial autocorrelation analysis method and modified gravity model are applied to measure the digital economy development level of national urban agglomeration from 2013 to 2019, and further explore the overall situation, regional differences and spatial pattern of digital economy development in national urban agglomeration.#br#The research shows that firstly the development trend of digital economy in 19 national-level agglomerations is in a good state, with evident evolution dominated by successive transfer and supplemented by cross-level transfer. Secondly, the synergy of digital economy development in national urban agglomerations is not strong, and the characteristics of “inter-group heterogeneity and intra-group homogeneity” are gradually emerging. Thirdly, the development of digital economy in national urban agglomerations presents a positive spatial agglomeration from weak to strong, and its development model is dominated by low-low agglomeration, followed by high-high agglomeration. As a whole, the spatial pattern of the digital economy development of national-level urban agglomerations presents the “highland interlocking region” centered on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Yangtze River Delta-Pearl River Delta and two “low valley regions” in the northeast and northwest, and the spatial distribution is characterized by “sparse in the east and dense in the west”, which is divided by "Hu Line".#br#Finally, this paper puts forward policy recommendations to promote the development of digital economy in urban agglomerations and to narrow the regional differencesin development of digital economy. The first is to make overall plans and strive to create new advantages for the development of the digital economy. The second is promote the synergy of inter-cluster digital economy development through diversified interaction, co-creation and sharing. The third is to accelerate the integration of the digital economy within urban agglomerations by unblocking obstacles and breaking down barriers.#br#