科技安全风险评估及监测预警系统构建研究

科技领域安全是国家安全的重要组成部分，而复杂的国际局势、严苛的技术限制以及当代科技面临的颠覆性发展趋势已引发一系列关涉科技安全的重大问题，给我国国家安全和公共安全带来严峻挑战。从风险评估与安全预警视角出发，依循“变量识别—数据评估—安全预警—预案调用”的预警思路，运用专家访谈、扎根理论和层次分析法，构建科技安全风险评估框架，并提出科技安全监测预警系统构建逻辑。其中，科技安全风险评估框架主要包括要素性、自反性、自主性、保障性风险4类关键指标；监测预警系统建立在风险评估框架基础上，主要包含警情评估、警情报告、管理决策、应急预案4个子系统。基于研究结果，针对我国科技安全监测预警系统构建提出相关建议，以期为我国科技治理及保障科技安全提供新思路。

Risk Assessment and Early Warning System of Science and Technology Security

Science and technology security is an important component of national security. However, the complex international situation, rigorous technical restrictions and the subversive development trend of contemporary science and technology have triggered a series of major issues related to science and technology security, which also have brought tough challenges to China's national security. Science and technology security is affected by many endogenous and exogenous factors, like national technology strategy, innovation capacity, technology management system, resources, talents, technical industry, and other multifaceted conditions. In the face of scientific and technological security risks, in addition to improving the ability of scientific and technological innovation, it is equally important to prevent problems before they occur. As for those risks that may endanger scientific and technological security, advance prevention and timely warning are in pressing need.#br#This study is a combination of normative and empirical analysis to explore the meaning and elements of science and technology security in China, and to clarify the framework of science and technology security assessment and early warning mechanism, which may contribute some ideas and theoretical supports for improving the monitoring and early warning system of science and technology security. From the perspective of risk assessment and security early warning, this research follows the early warning logic of “variable design-data evaluation-security early warning-plan call”, combines the analytic hierarchy process and expert grading method, and constructs the “science and technology security risk assessment framework” and the “science and technology security early warning system”. Among them, the “science and technology security risk assessment framework” is developed with normative reasoning and grounded theory method. Both first-hand and second-hand text materials are involved, including in-depth expert interviews, policy documents, literatures, newspapers and so on. By employing a three-step text analysis, an assessment framework including four kinds of key evaluation indicators (essentiality, reflexivity, autonomy, and security) is developed.#br# Theearly warning mechanism of science and technology security is based on the risk assessment framework. Before developing the mechanism, an early warning logic is clarified. Generally, in the engineering control logic of early warning, it is necessary to set and clarify the science and technology security early warning objectives and targets. And then, a series of variables and indicators related with the target should be assessed. After that, a conclusion of safety level can be calculated. To assessing the risk variables and indicators, there are some necessary tasks, including risk variables identification, weighting, ordering and some other calculation. This study provides an approach to weighting science and technology risk variables and to calculating safety levels. On the basis of the“science and technology security risk assessment framework” and the analysis of early warning logics and techniques, the mechanism of science and technology security early warning is developed. The mechanism mainly relies on the modules of emergency assessment, emergency report, decision-making management, and contingency plan, which involving multiple variables and subjects, and the four modules operate circularly in practice.#br#In summary, this study focuses on the risk assessment and early warning mechanism of science and technology security in China by developing and clarifying the assessment framework and early warning methods. In the process of constructing the science and technology security early warning mechanism, this study systematically analyzes the science and technology security early warning logic, hoping to provide new ideas for China's science and technology governance and security.#br#In future research, the identification and assessment of S&T security risks can be more widely incorporated into quantitative and textual data corresponding to different core technology fields,so as to further refine evaluation indicators and improve their usability and computability. In view of the predictability and timeliness of science and technology security monitoring and early warning, the follow-up research could aim at a science and technology security monitoring and early warning system, develop a large sample database and case base of science and technology security, combine data science research paradigm to establish a continuous intelligent prediction model of science and technology security monitoring and early warning, and improve the overall early warning research and judgment efficiency.#br#