复杂适应系统理论视角下我国应急科技系统发展研究

近年来，我国突发事件呈多发态势，亟需由强有力应急科技系统支撑的应急产业作为保障。基于应急科技系统的复杂性特征，从四大主体属性及三大体系架构出发，对应急科技系统复杂属性进行分析。通过对我国应急科技系统发展历程进行梳理，运用复杂适应系统理论的刺激反应模型、回声模型、涌现模型，以新冠肺炎疫情应对为例研究应急科技系统发展机制，提出应急科技进步促进应急产业长效发展的实践启示。研究发现，应急科技系统具有复杂适应系统的7个特征，是典型的复杂适应系统；在应急科技系统中，政府、事业单位、应急企业等主体通过自适应行为不断积累经验并革新内部模型；应急科技系统发展遵循复杂适应系统刺激反应机制、资源交互机制、受限生成机制；应急科技系统发展历程表明，其存在并遵循上述发展机制。

The Development of China's Emergency Science and Technology System from the Perspective of Complex Adaptation System Theory

In recent years, the world has entered a period of high incidence of emergencies such as floods, earthquakes and epidemics, posing serious threats to the safety of people's lives and property. The response to COVID-19 and other emergencies shows that the prevention and response to major emergencies cannot be achieved without the support of science and technology. Science and technology is regarded as a powerful force to promote social development, and also plays a strong supporting role in the development of emergency management system. But at present, China′s emergency science and technology industry is still in its infancy, and the lack of key technologies and equipment, incomplete product categories and other problems seriously affect the government's emergency management ability. Therefore, it is an important task for society and government departments to study the law in the development process of China′s emergency science and technology system, improve the development level of emergency industry, and minimize the harm caused by emergencies.#br#Therefore, this paper tries to study the development of China′s emergency scientific and technological system from the perspective of complex adaptive system theory. By analyzing the complex adaptability characteristics of China′s emergency science and technology system and reviewing its development history, the basic law of China′s emergency science and technology management is preliminarily explored, providing reference for the development of China′s emergency science and technology and the scientific and technological innovation of emergency enterprises.#br#Based on the complex characteristics of the emergency science and technology system, this paper analyzes the complex properties of the emergency science and technology system from the four main attributes of aggregation, nonlinear, diversity, element flow and the three architecture of identification, building blocks and internal model, and it shows that the emergency science and technology system in China has the characteristics of complex adaptive system. Based on the analysis of CAS theoretical characteristics and the policy identification development of the emergency response industry, the evolution process of China′s emergency response science and technology system is divided into three stages: infancy stage (2003-2007), steady development stage (2008-2017) and rapid growth stage (2018-) through the development analysis of Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd. to support the evolution of emergency science and technology system. According to the above analysis, it can be concluded that the emergency technology system is a complex system. In the process of the development and evolution of China′s emergency science and technology system, the development mode from traditional emergency response to intelligent emergency response has gradually been formed. #br#This paper analyzes how the science and technology emergency system interacts with the outside world, how the main bodies between different subjects interact, and how each subsystem of the science and technology emergency system forms a complex macro stimulus response model with the help of CAS theory, echo model and limited production model. It further discusses the mechanism of action of the emergency system of science and technology in China. Taking the response to COVID-19 as an example, this paper demonstrates that the emergency science and technology system follows three mechanisms in the context of major emergencies. Based on CAS theory analysis of emergency science and technology system, it is suggested to promote the research and development of core technologies for emergency response according to the scientific and technological needs of emergencies and strengthen the training of leading talents in emergency science and technology. It is also important to improve the transformation system of emergency scientific research achievements and solve the problem of information asymmetry in the process of transformation. By the construction of emergency science and technology industry demonstration park and information network, a long-term mechanism for the transformation of emergency scientific research achievements can be established and promoted to promote the optimization of the transformation mode of emergency scientific research achievements The improvement of the emergency scientific research achievement transformation system and the long-term mechanism will ultimately promote the development of the emergency industry.#br#