中国城市群科技脆弱性波浪收敛规律的定量模拟与验证

伴随城市群发展，各区域以核心城市为中心，不断联合周边城市共同承担区域科技创新风险，从而实现科技系统稳定可持续发展目标。结合几何推导对城市群科技脆弱性波动规律进行分析，运用VHSD—EM法计算城市群及群内城市科技脆弱性，同时，利用ArcGIS10.2进行空间趋势面分析以及分级后的空间格局演化分析，进而对城市群科技风险联合防控需求进行实证分析，最后运用Matlab进行波浪收敛曲线拟合。结果表明：中国城市群科技脆弱性呈波浪性收敛特征并存在联合防控门槛限制，同时，各城市群科技脆弱性收敛曲线相似性较大、模拟效果较好。

Quantitative Simulation and Verification of Wave Convergence Law of Science and Technology Vulnerability of Urban Agglomerations in China

As a collection of multiple cities radiating from the core city to the surrounding area, an urban agglomeration is used to be a new power source leading the development of science and technology in China. However, there are some problems mainly caused by the policy support, urban resources and positioning, such as the difficulty in effective utilization of scientific and technological resources and the unequal distribution of scientific and technological resources. Therefore, it is significant to study on the overall vulnerability of science and technology in urban agglomerations to accurately grasp the sensitivity of urban agglomerations to the science and technology system, and promote the stable and sustainable development of urban science and technology innovation ability in China.#br# The fluctuation mechanism of the vulnerability of science and technology in urban agglomerations is a nonlinear composite fluctuation curve formed with the time lapse and the increase of numbers of allied cities. In this paper, the changing law of wave convergence curve of science and technology vulnerability in urban agglomerations is analyzed in detail through geometric derivation. Then, the evaluation index system of science and technology vulnerability is constructed, and the evaluation score of science and technology vulnerability of all cities in Chinese urban agglomerations and urban agglomerations as a whole is calculated by the VHSD-EM method. In addition, ArcGIS10.2 is used to analyze the spatial trend surface of science and technology vulnerability of different urban agglomerations and cities within urban agglomerations, as well as the spatial pattern and spatio-temporal evolution after classification. The intensity model of joint prevention and control of scientific and technological risks in urban agglomeration and the calculation method of threshold value of science and technology system joint prevention and control are established. Finally, several wave convergence curves are fitted by using Matlab software based on the scientific and technological vulnerability values from 2009 to 2019.#br#The results show that (1) the change of science and technology vulnerability in Chinese urban agglomerations follows the law of wave convergence; (2) the change of science and technology vulnerability in Chinese urban agglomerations presents a wave convergence pattern, and the overall science and technology vulnerability gradually decreases and tends to an optimal stable value; (3) the intensity of joint prevention and control of science and technology risks generally tends to be in wave convergence, and there is a limit of joint prevention and control threshold, and at present, many cities in national urban agglomerations have combined with other cities for risk prevention and control, while few cities at regional and regional levels; (4) the convergence curve of science and technology vulnerability wave in China's urban agglomerations has been verified by practice, which shows that the convergence curves of science and technology vulnerability wave in different urban agglomerations are relatively similar, and the simulation effect of science and technology vulnerability function curve in urban agglomerations is good.#br#Through the overall vulnerability analysis of science and technology in urban agglomerations in China, this paper provides the following important theoretical and empirical reference for the operation of science and technology system in urban agglomerations in China. First, a scientific and technological innovation-driven strategy is suggested. Governments at all levels in urban agglomerations should thoroughly implement the strategy of innovation-driven development and promote scientific and technological innovation and high-tech development to a new level. Second, it is important to explore plans for integrated scientific and technological innovation. Governments at all levels within urban agglomerations should integrate the resources of the government, enterprises, academia and industry organizations to solve the difficulties in industry-university-research cooperation and commit themselves to the R&D and commercialization of revolutionary and cutting-edge manufacturing technologies. Third, systematic governance of scientific and technological innovation should be stressed. Governments at all levels within urban agglomerations should first strengthen the construction of scientific and technological data infrastructure, and promote the application of big data, cloud computing, Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence in scientific research and innovation activities. The last is to advise the governments at all levels in urban agglomerations to build a systematic and open science and technology innovation ecosystem.#br#