科技金融政策能否提升科技人才集聚水平——基于多期DID经验证据

科技人才是实现我国科技自立自强的核心要素，而科技金融政策是推动我国科技产业发展的重要举措，也是促进地区科技人才集聚的积极探索。以科技金融政策作为一项准自然实验，利用2004—2019年全国281个城市面板数据构建多期双重差分模型，实证分析科技金融政策对城市科技人才集聚水平的影响和作用机制。研究发现：科技金融政策显著提升城市科技人才集聚水平；科技金融政策主要通过政府干预效应、结构升级效应和创新驱动效应提升城市科技人才集聚水平；科技金融政策对科技人才集聚水平的影响随着城市行政级别的提升呈现“边际效应递增”规律。据此，提出对策建议，包括推进科技金融政策有序扩散、强化试点政策的科技人才集聚效应并扩展作用路径、设计科技金融政策梯度发展战略、促进地区间均衡协调发展。

Can the Science and Technology Financial Policy Improve the Agglomeration Level of Scientific and Technological Talents:An Empirical Analysis Based on Multi-period DID

Nowadays, the world is experiencing great changes, and China is facing the increasingly complex domestic and international environment. China's economic development needs stronger and lasting scientific and technological (S&T) support, which puts forward more urgent requirements for S&T innovation. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to "adhere to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of China's modernization and take S&T self-reliance and self-improvement as the strategic support for national development". As an indispensable core element in the development of modern science and technology and high-tech industries, S&T talents have become one of the key elements in promoting the high-quality development of China's economy and play an important role in promoting regional technology research and development and improving the transformation ability of technological achievements.#br#Although China has a large number of talents, there is a lack of elites in the field of science and technology and China is facing many bottleneck problems. Without a talent advantage, it is impossible to have a technological advantage, innovation advantage, or industrial advantage. S&T talent is the key force of regional technological innovation, and financial capital is important for technological innovation. For a long time, the financing difficulties faced by Chinese technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises have been the main constraint on improving their S&T innovation ability and an important reason for the lack of regional S&T talents. In order to break the financing barriers of enterprises, enhance their independent innovation capability, transform the economic development model and build an innovative country in an all-round way, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China implemented the pilot policy of combining science and technology with finance (PCSTF) in 16 regions of China in 2011. PCSTF aims to promote the development of the technology industries byintegrating technology and finance, helping enterprises overcome financing constraints and improving their independent innovation capabilities. Then, can the PCSTF's implementation improve the agglomeration level of S&T talents? What is the mechanism for PCSTF to promote the agglomeration level of S&T talents? It has significant practical implications to answering these questions for furthering the agglomeration effect of S&T talents, improving regional independent innovation capability, and realizing China's transformation from demographic dividend to talent dividend. Therefore, this paper takes PCSTF as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the panel data of 281 cities in China from 2004 to 2019 and the difference-in-difference (DID) method to evaluate the impact and mechanisms of PCSTF on the agglomeration level of S&T talents.#br#The research results show that, firstly, PCSTF can significantly improve the agglomeration level of S&T talents in pilot cities, and the conclusion is still robust after using PSM-DID, placebo tests and other robustness tests. Secondly, the mechanism tests reveal that the PCSTF improves the agglomeration level of S&T talents in pilot cities primarily through government intervention effects, structural upgrading effects and innovation-driven effects. Finally, the agglomeration effect of PCSTF on S&T talents shows the law of marginal utility increase in cities with different administrative levels.#br# Compared with previous literature, the contributions of this article are mainly reflected in three aspects. First, from the standpoint of research, for the first time, the policy effect of PCSTF is focused on the agglomeration level of S&T talents, which broadens and enriches the assessment of PCSTF and related research on S&T talent agglomeration. Second, in terms of identification strategy, this paper identifies the net effect of PCSTF on the agglomeration level of S&T talents in the DID estimation framework.At the same time, with considerartion of the non-randomness of the selection of pilot cities, PSM-DID is further used to correct potential selection bias with a variety of methods, such as placebo testing;for robustness testing, the conclusions of the research are more reliable. Third, in the empirical analysis, the mediation effect model is used to explore the conduction mechanism of PCSTF affecting the agglomeration level of S&T talents, which is helpful to further clarify the internal logic and transmission path. Furthermore, the differential impact of PCSTF on the agglomeration level of S&T talents in cities with different administrative levels is considered, and the conclusions can provide empirical evidence for the further diffusion of PCSTF.#br#