多元要素流动对城市群高质量发展的影响——以长株潭城市群为例

利用熵值法测度2011—2020年长株潭城市群高质量发展水平，并在梳理多元要素流动影响城市群高质量发展作用机制的基础上，选取全局与局域莫兰指数检验城市群高质量发展水平的空间关联特征，采用3种空间面板模型实证分析R&D人才流、R&D资金流和信息流对高质量发展的影响。研究结果表明：①长株潭城市群高质量发展水平均值为0.433，经济全面发展与社会协调发展水平明显偏低，高质量发展水平在全局范围内存在显著的空间正相关性；②长株潭城市群空间结构呈现出以长沙为核心的单极化发展趋势，长沙的各要素流和综合流强度均明显高于其它城市；③城市群高质量发展与R&D人才流呈显著的线性正相关，与R&D资金流呈显著的U型曲线关系，经济全面发展、社会协调发展与环境友好发展在城市群内均存在显著的空间正相关。

The Impact of Multiple Factor Flow on High-quality Economic Development of Urban Agglomeration：An Example from Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration

Nowadays, urban agglomeration is a new growth pole leading high-quality development, and its factor flow and spatial pattern evolution have a decisive impact on the construction of new urbanization, optimal allocation of resources and coordinated regional development. It is clearly stated in the outline of China's 14th Five-year Plan that the rational flow and efficient agglomeration of various factors should be promoted, the internal spatial structure of urban agglomeration should be optimized, and a multi-center, multi-level and multi-node network city agglomerations should be formed. However, most urban agglomerations in China are still in the infant or rapid development stage, and the flow of multiple elements are conducive to forming the spatial structure of single-center urban agglomerations. This may not only provide a large amount of labor force, capital and information for the development of core cities, and thus bring a trickle-down effect among cities to promote coordinated development, but also cause problems such as unbalanced and inadequate development among cities, fragile ecological environment and low development quality due to the lack of driving ability of core cities. This raises the question that, as China's economy enters a new stage of high-quality development, which factor flows play a key role in the high-quality development of urban agglomerations? How do they affect the high-quality development of urban agglomeration? Will factor flows among cities have spatial spillover effects on high-quality development?It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to clarify these problems for the formation of an integrated, interactive, fully functional urban spatial pattern and the coordinated promotion of high-quality development of urban agglomerations.#br#This paper takes the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration in the rapid development stage as the research object. Firstly, on the basis of the evaluation of the high-quality development level of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2020, Moran's I is used to analyze its spatial correlation characteristics. Secondly, from the dynamic perspective, the direct effects and spatial spillover effects of R&D personnel, R&D capital and information flow on the high-quality development of urban agglomeration are discussed. Finally, the robustness test and heterogeneity analysis are carried out.#br#The results show that the quality development level of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is generally low, but there is a significant upward trend. The high quality development of urban agglomerations has a significant positive spatial correlation in the global scope. Changsha-zhuzhou-xiangtan urban agglomeration shows an obvious trend of unipolar development, and there is an obvious difference in the intensity of factor flow of cities at different levels. As the core of urban agglomeration, Changsha ranks first in R&D personnel flow, R&D capital flow and information flow. The high-quality development of urban agglomeration has a significant positive linear correlation with R&D personnel flow, and a significant U-shaped curve relationship with R&D capital flow. Only the R&D capital flow of Changsha city appears on the right side of the symmetry axis at the end of the investigation period, and the intensity of R&D capital flow of other cities needs to be improved. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the direct and total effects of R&D personnel flow on high-quality development of different dimensions are significantly positive. There is a significant U-shaped curve relationship between R&D capital flow and comprehensive economic development, and there is a significant linear positive correlation between information flow and comprehensive economic development. However, the positive promoting effect of R&D capital flow and information flow on social coordination and environmentally friendly development has not been shown in the study.#br#Combined with the research findings, it is proposed that at first, the government should accelerate the inter city flow of R&D talents and R&D funds to achieve high-quality development of urban agglomerations. Second, the government should promote the deep integration of the new generation of information technology with urban construction, basic public services and ecological and environmental protection, and promote the coordinated and green development of urban agglomerations. On the basis of testing its spatial auto-correlation, this paperfurther investigates the direct and spatial spillover effects of multiple factor flows on the high-quality development of urban agglomerations in different dimensions.#br#