农村劳动力转移影响因素分析:29个省市的经验数据

在分析和评价传统理论和已有文献的基础上,突破单一的城乡收入差距影响农村劳动力转移的传统思维,构建出农村劳动力转移不仅受迁移地非农收入的实际效用因素的影响,受迁移成本变动因素影响的理论模型。根据全国29个省市1995-2006年的面板数据,经过单位根检验和协整关系检验,利用回归模型,估计分析了非农收入的实际效用因素和非农收入成本因素对农村劳动力转移的影响度。城乡收入差距、非农产业生产总值比率与农村劳动力转移呈正相关,城乡消费支出比率、城镇失业率分别作为农村劳动力转移的直接价格成本和就业风险成本与农村劳动力转移呈负相关关系。要进一步促进我国农村劳动力向城镇的合理转移,必须从两个方面着手:一是提高非农收入的实际效用,二是降低非农收入的成本率。

Impact Factors Analysis about Rural Labor Migration:Empirical Data from 29 Provinces and Cities

Based on the theoretical analysis and existing literatures about rural labor migration,breakthrough the traditional thinking way of single Urban-rural income gap affect rural labor migration,the thesis draw the conclusion that not only the Urban-rural income gap affect rural labor migration,but also the cost affect rural labor migration.Morever,according to the whole country'data during 1995 to 2006,after unit root test and cointegration test,using regression model,the thesis make a estimate about the impact of the Urban-rural income gap and the cost on rural labor inflow.Estimates show that the Urban-rural income gap and the Non-agricultural industries output promote the rural labor migration,the cost obstruct the rural labor migration,thus clarify the impact degree of Urban-rural income gap and cost changes.In view of the roles about all the factors on rural labor inflow,in order to further promote rural labor migration,we must proceed from two aspects:increase the higher income' marginal utility and reduce the higher income' cost.