出口与中国的经济增长:需求导向的分析

出口的增长除了能够直接推动经济增长之外,还对消费、投资、政府支出、进口造成影响,从而间接刺激经济增长。完整地考察出口与经济增长之间的关系必须同时考虑出口增长对经济增长的直接和间接推动作用。按此方法估计的结果表明,20世纪90年代以来外贸出口每增长10%,基本上能够推动GDP增长1%。

EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA:A DEMAND-ORIENTED ANALYSIS

Many studies based on an accounting identity of gross domestic product found thatthe contribution of international trade to China's economic growth in the past 20 years was everysmall. In this paper, we re-examine the issue and find that those studies underestimated export'scontribution to GDP growth due to their neglect of export's indirect impacts on domestic con-sumption, investment, government expenditure and imports. We propose a new estimationmethod and find that a ten percent increase in exports resu...