中国市场利率动态研究-基于短期国债回购利率的实证分析

通过统计分析,本文认为电子货币影响货币流通速度的因素主要有:现金比率、货币供给的“流动性”、金融电子化程度以及货币电子化程度,它们对货币流通速度的影响是不同的。进一步分析发现,中国电子货币对传统货币有着两个明显的替代效应:一是替代加速效应,二是替代转化效应。两个替代效应的存在使电子货币并没有加快货币流通速度,反而导致了货币流通速度的下降,这与大多数学者的研究结论相反。本文的结论也许可以用来解释近年来我国货币流通速度下降的原因。

PERFORMANCE OF DISCRETE-TIME SPOT RATE MODELS IN CHINA: AN EMPIRICAL TEST ON CHINESE REPO RATES

THIS PAPER POINT OUT SEMINALLY THE EVIDENT SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE REPLACEMENT OF ELECTRONIC MONEY OF TRADITIONAL MONEY,THAT IS,SUBSTITUTION ACCELERATE EFFECT AND SUBSTITUTION TRANSFORM EFFECT,AND THEIR EVIDENT STAGE FEATURES,MOREOVER DRAW A CONCLUSION THAT THE REPLACEMENT DOES NOT ACCELERATE BUT REDUCE THE MONEY CIRCULATION VELOCITY,WHICH IS OPPOSED TO MOST RESEARCHERS,AND GIVE A NEW EXPLANATION FOR THE CONTINUALLY DECREASE OF MONEY CIRCULATION VELOCITY IN RECENT YEARS IN CHINA.