实际汇率变动对商品国内价格的影响研究

本文从理论与实证两方面对实际汇率以及汇率波动性的变动对中国出口商品国内价格的影响进行了研究。理论分析强调了汇率对出口商品国内价格的影响方向取决于商品的需求价格弹性。对我国1990—2002年共12种商品平行数据的实证分析说明了汇率波动性增加可能导致部分初级产品国内价格水平的下降。全文分析强调了实际汇率波动性对国内商品价格的影响。

INFLUENCES OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON DOMESTIC PRICES

This paper studies the impacts of exchange rate pass-through on the domestic prices of exported commodities in China.Treating the real exchange rate of RMB as a stochastic variable,the theoretical model emphasizes the effect of exchange rate volatility on domestic commodity prices.Using panel data from 1990 to 2002,our empirical analysis shows that increases in exchange rate volatility have a significantly negative effect on the prices of some domestic primary commodities.