中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查抽样与加权方法研究

对2000年12月、2006年6月和2010年12月开展的三次中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查的抽样方法、数据评估和加权模型做了详尽介绍,以便为各界学者、研究人员和在读研究生使用这套数据时,对数据来源有充分了解。按与人口规模成正比的概率抽样(PPS)方法进行分级多阶段抽样框,对涉及的2万名老年人入户调查所获得的原始数据,利用调查时点左右的人口普查或1%人口抽样调查60周岁及以上人口相关结果,通过相应的加权评估,足以推论调查时点我国大陆地区老年人口的总体状况,亦可对五年内的变化状况做短期估值预测。

A Study of Sampling and Weighting Procedures for Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban/Rural China (2000,2006 & 2010)

The China Research Center on Aging (CRCA) conducted the Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban/Rural China(SSAPUR) in 2000 to determine the socioeconomic and health characteristics of the population age 60 years and above in 2000. And tow longitudinal surveies objective the CRCA is considering for the 2006 SSAPUR and 2010 SSAPUR are to include a longitudinal study for the elderly persons in the 2000 SSAPUR sample or 2006 SSAPUR sample who can be found again and interviewed in the same sample areas. They would provide a valuable database to estimate the trends in the socioeconomic and health characteristics of the elderly, but it would also complicate the sampling and estimation procedures. They were a national -level survey based on a frame of 31 provinces in China mainland. The issues related to Estimation and Weighting Procedures by Census of China or 1% Sample Survey of Population of China alternative are introduce and discussed in the paper.