出口退税政策对出口贸易的持续影响效应研究——来自异质性企业出口生存率的证据

出口退税作为一项贸易调控政策,在一国政府应对国际贸易的大幅波动中发挥着重要作用.文章以企业出口关系持续性作为研究切入点,结合高度细化的出口退税率数据,运用生存分析模型对出口退税政策的实施效果进行系统评估.研究表明:(1)总体而言,出口退税率的变动在短期和长期均对企业出口关系的稳定性产生了显著影响.(2)在短期内,出口退税政策的调整对企业出口持续性的影响不因其所在区域和行业特征的差异而存在显著不同,但在所有制属性层面,民营企业受到的影响程度最大.(3)在长期内,来自东部地区、民营以及低技术行业的企业不仅受政策变动的作用时效更长,而且受政策调整的影响效果也更明显;而来自西部地区、三资以及高技术行业的企业则对出口退税政策调整的反应敏感程度最低.因此,出口退税政策的实施需要结合出口信贷等政策加以综合运用,以保证经济的平稳运行.

The Effect of Export Rebate Policy on the Durationof Export Trade:Evidence from ExportSurvival Rate of Heterogeneous Firms

As a trade regulatory tool, export rebate policy plays an important role in the process of dealing with the intense fluctuations in international trade.This paper focuses on the duration of firm export relationship and uses survival analysis model to systematically evaluate the implementation effect of export rebate policy by using the highly refined data of export rebate rates.It arrives at the results as follows: firstly, generally speaking, the changes in export rebate rates have significant effects on the stability of firm export relationship in both short term and long term;secondly, in the short term, the effect of the adjustment to export rebate policy on the duration of firm export do not vary widely with location and industry characteristics, but at ownership attribute level, the effect on private firms is the greatest;thirdly, in the long term, firms from eastern regions, private firms and firms in low-tech industries are not only longer affected by policy changes, but also have more obvious effects by policy adjustment, and firms from western regions, foreign-funded firms and firms in high-tech industries, have the lowest sensitivity to the adjustment to export rebate policy.Therefore, the implementation of export rebate policy needs to combine with policies like export credit to guarantee stable economic operation.