房地产价格与通货膨胀预期

文章通过构建房地产均衡市场模型,在风险中性的假设前提下,利用无套利均衡定价原理,发展了从房地产价格波动中分离出市场通货膨胀预期的新方法.在此基础上,通过对中国房地产市场的实证研究发现,房地产预期收益率与通货膨胀预期之间确实存在稳定的函数关系.最后,文章提出将房地产价格纳入到居住类消费价格指数中去以减少货币政策认识时滞的政策建议.

Real Estate Price and Inflation Expectation

In the assumption of risk neutrals, this paper first makes use of no-arbitrage equilibrium pricing theory to develop a new method to extract market inflation expectation from real estate price by building a real estate market equilibrium model. Further more, we find that there exists sound function relationship between the expected rate of return in real estate market and inflation expectation through conducting positive research on Chinese real estate market. At last, we suggest that real estate price should be added to the Residence Price Index in order to lessen the recognition lag of monetary policy.