城市服务业发展、企业出口与加工贸易转型

文章基于中国经济向"服务型经济"转型及面临产业"空心化"挑战的背景,研究了城市服务业发展对企业出口行为的影响,并识别出其对加工贸易转型的作用.实证研究表明,城市服务业发展提升了企业出口概率,也促进了企业出口量的扩张,并且通过"分工效应"促进了企业的出口,通过"工资溢价效应"抑制了企业的出口.进一步研究发现:(1)持续出口企业、存在时间较长企业以及规模较大企业的出口受惠于城市服务业发展,但外资企业、资本密集型企业以及生产率水平较高企业的出口却会因城市服务业发展而受损;(2)加工贸易企业的出口受到城市服务业发展水平的抑制作用;(3)在剔除加工贸易企业后,资本密集型企业和生产率水平较高企业的出口同样会受惠于城市服务业的发展.上述结论意味着,随着"服务型经济"的临近,寻求服务业发展与加工贸易转型的联动机制及助推新兴产业发展,是应对产业"空心化"挑战的关键.

City Service Industry Development,Enterprise Export and Transformation of Processing Trade

Although the service industry in China booms up relatively late,it shows a strong mo-mentum of growth recently;China's service industry accounted for more than 40% of GDP in 2000. As most developed countries including America and Japan have experienced,China's industrial structure is now show-ing a tendency of the transformation from "industrial-based economy" to "service-oriented economy",facing the challenge of industrial hollowing-out. Will the development of the service industry damage our country's exports? Data shows a high degree of consistency between the expansion of China's exports and the develop-ment of service industry from the trend perspective,even after the service industry accounted for more than 40% of GDP. Therefore,the relationship between the development of service industry,its concomitant issue of industrial hollowing-out and export may be complicated and deserves further discussion. Especially under the background of increasing threat of industrial transfer represented by processing trade,this research has strong practical significance. This paper also has obvious policy implications for China's trade development strategy and the direction of national economic transformation & adjustment. Based on achievements of existing re-searches,this paper attempts to make the marginal contribution in the following two aspects:first of all,on the basis of data concerning the development of service industry at city-level,we examine its impact on the export of manufacturing enterprises and depict and verify its influence mechanism at the micro level,which is a use-ful supplement to the existing theory;besides,based on the overall development of local service industry and taking the impact of the processing trade into account,this paper can intuitively reflect the impact of service industry development on processing trade enterprises and identify the possible trend of industrial transfer, providing empirical evidence for the impact of tertiarization and being of practical significance to China's in-dustrial policy formulation and foreign trade transformation strategy. Our research shows that:on the whole, the development of urban service industry not only enhances the export probability of enterprises,but also pro-motes the expansion of enterprises' export volume. The development of urban service industry promotes the export of enterprises mainly through "division-of-labor effect" and restrains the export of enterprises mainly through "wage-premium effect". We also obtain the following conclusions by expanding the research:firstly, the development of urban service industry benefits the export of persistent exporters,longer-existing firms and large-scale enterprises,but does damage the export of foreign-funded firms,capital-intensive firms and firms with high level of productivity;secondly,the export of processing trade enterprises is restrained by the devel-opment level of urban service industry;thirdly,after excluding the processing trade enterprises,the export of capital-intensive enterprises and high productivity enterprises can also benefit from the development of urban service industry. Based on our conclusion,the following three policy implications can be obtained. Firstly,we should take a correct view of the development of service industry and the threat of industrial hollowing-out. The tertiarization helps to improve the overall level of the national economy and bring about higher efficiency. Secondly,as the transition period of "service-oriented economy" approaches,the governments should pay more attention to new industries and promote the timely replacement of the old industries by the new indus-tries,instead of blindly supporting the old industries. Thirdly,in order to promote the transformation and up-grading of local processing trade enterprises,we should seek a linkage mechanism between the development of service industry and the transformation and upgrading of processing trade enterprises. On the one hand,our governments can try to promote the servitization process of manufacturing industry;on the other hand,we should promote the service industry to actively embed the production chain and reduce transaction costs of processing trade enterprises.