中国企业嵌入全球价值链的就业效应—基于PSM-DID和GPS方法的经验证据

就业是最大的民生,探讨通过开放来提高保障和改善民生水平是全球价值链福利效应分析的核心议题.文章利用2000?2006年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库中的数据,基于目前最权威和准确的企业层面价值链嵌入度指标,采用倾向得分匹配-倍差法(PSM-DID)和广义倾向得分法(GPS)对价值链嵌入如何影响企业就业的问题进行了实证研究.研究发现,全球价值链嵌入对就业有显著的促进作用,尤其是资本密集型企业、技术密集型企业、民营企业和东中部企业,其价值链嵌入的就业效应最为显著.进一步研究发现,全球价值链嵌入会通过出口效应、中间品替代效应和跨国公司价值链布局效应等三个渠道作用于企业就业.随后的研究还表明,嵌入价值链时间越长的企业,获得的就业促进效应越为突出.最后,研究还发现就业水平与价值链嵌入度成倒"U"形关系,即边际改善效应从递增向递减转变.

The Employment Effect of Chinese Firms Embedded in GVC: Empirical Evidence Based on PSM-DID and GPS Methods

The global value chain(GVC)has been the main pattern of global production arrangement in the modern era of globalization since the 1960s. And during the period,China has successively become the largest trading nation,the second largest foreign investor,and one of the countries with the highest participa-tion in GVC across the world. According to the data of 'China Statistical Yearbook',the number of urban and rural employees in China has maintained an average annual growth of about 2.95 million since the entry to the WTO. However,but as the 19th National Congress Report emphasizes that 'what Chinese society now faces is the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people's ever-growing needs for a better life',differences in the level of employment growth among regions,industries and types of ownership still exist in China. In fact,the employment problem has always been the biggest livelihood issue owing to its direct correlation with the welfare improvement and the stable development of the society. Therefore,to ex-plore ways to achieve sustained employment growth through opening-up and at the same time gradually elim-inate the employment gap among sectors,regions and ownership will surely be the top priority of China's structural reform in the long term,and should be also included in the subject of further promoting opening-up and giving full play to the positive welfare effect of deeply integrating into the GVC division of labor system. From above perspectives,this paper focuses on the overall effect of the GVC embedment on not only employ-ment growth,but also the employment structure,including heterogeneous and intrinsic influences on enter-prises in different regions,industries and ownership types,thus providing more realistic and optimized path support for realizing the strategic goal of full employment for the '13th Five-Year Plan'. This paper uses the merged data of China's 'Industrial Enterprise Database' and 'China Customs Import and Export Database' from 2000 to 2006 and employs propensity score matching(PSM),difference-in-differ-ences(DID)method as well as generalized propensity score matching(GPS)to study the effect of GVC em-bedment on employment. Empirical results show that GVC embedment contributes to the employment,espe-cially in capital-intensive industries,technology-intensive enterprises and private enterprises. Furthermore,we find that GVC embedment can affect the employment effect of enterprises through three channels:export ef-fect,intermediate substitution effect and value chain layout effect of transnational corporations. Besides,we conclude that the longer an enterprise is embedded in the global value chain,the more prominent the employ-ment promotion effect is. Moreover,through the investigation of the continuous behavior of enterprises em-bedded in the GVC,the degree of GVC embedment presents an inverted U-shape relationship with employ-ment,indicating that the marginal improvement effect changes from increasing to decreasing progressively. Finally,from an opening-up perspective,this paper provides the possibility of the following ways to en-sure the employment:generally,by enhancing the depth and breadth of the GVC embedment,and improving the capability of China's enterprises for advancing the people's livelihood. Besides,based on current sectors, regions and ownership types with the prominent employment effect of GVC embedment,it should think about how to further mobilize the positive effects of enterprises in sectors,regions and ownership types without full use of current employment welfare effect,thereby improving the quality and effectiveness of people's well-be-ing accompanied by structural perfection.