中国进出口额与利率变动的关系——基于交易费用的一个解释

文章运用ADF检验、协整关系检验等对我国的出口额占进口额的比例(简称出口占进口比)和利率的关系进行实证检验,结果表明我国的出口占进口比和名叉利率闻存在着长期协整关系,并且是负相关关系.随后本文测算了每单位实际利率变动对出口占进口比的影响,结果表明大多数样本的影响值小于0,这个结果显然和传统理论的解释相异,为此文章建立了一个存在交易费用的两阶段开放经济模型解释我国的情况,最后提出一点启示.

The Relationship between Gross Import and Export and Interest Rate Fluctuation in China——An Explanation Based on Transaction Cost

The paper makes an empirical test on the relationship between the ratio of export to import and interest rate in China by ADF test and co-integration test.The results show that there exists a long-run co-integration relation between the ratio of export to import and nominal interest rate and the two are negatively correlated.Then it measures the effect of real interest rate fluctuation per unit on the ration of export to import.The effects of the majority samples are less than 0 and this is significantly di...