近代中国的产业集聚与扩散--基于20世纪30年代工业调查数据的实证分析

近代中国工业呈现明显的空间集聚特征，但是随着工业的不断发展，区位分布也出现了由口岸及沿海集聚向内陆扩散的现象。文章利用20世纪30年代中国的工业调查数据，从区位优势与产业集聚效应的角度实证考察了近代产业集聚与扩散的原因。研究表明，不但贸易优势对地区工业发展具有重要影响，而且产业集聚效应也是影响工业发展与区位选择的一个重要因素。进一步的研究表明，因为地区商品贸易的发展可以为工业提供资本积累并提高劳动者收入及地区购买力水平，所以发达的贸易可以成为地区工业发展的区位优势，并吸引企业的进入与集聚，从而促进工业发展。然而，产业的过度集聚也会降低工业的区位优势，促使产业向集聚区外扩散。文章的结论可以为当今中国合理引导产业转移与平衡发展带来启示。

Industrial Agglomeration and Diffusion in Modern China:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of Industrial Sectors in the 1930s

Modern Chinese industry was obviously featured by spatial agglomeration. However,with constant industrial development,location distribution also presented diffu-sion from ports and coastal areas to inland.Using the survey data of industrial sectors in the 1 930s,this paper empirically examines the reasons for industrial agglomeration and diffusion of modern China from the perspectives of location advantages and industrial agglomeration effect.It suggests that not only trade advantages have important effects on local industrial development,but also industrial agglomeration effect is an important factor affecting industrial development and location selection.Further study indicates local com-mercial trade development provides capital accumulation for the industrial sectors and leads to the increase in labor income & local purchase level,so developed trade can become local advantages of local industrial development and attract firm entry & agglomeration,there-by promoting industrial development.However,excessive industrial agglomeration also results in location advantages of the industrial sectors and advances industrial diffusion outside the cluster areas.The conclusions provide implications for reasonable guidance of industrial transfer and balanced development in current China.