财产保险对国民经济总量和经济波动性的影响——基于套期保值模型与中国的实证

财产保险与国民经济之间存在何种内在联系一直是理论界探索的重要问题。文章创造性地将产险的套期保值原理与考虑了灾害损失的宏观经济模型相结合,得出了一定条件下财产保险对国民经济影响的数量模型。通过比较我国东、中、西部三个具有区域代表性省份的相关实证结果,进一步发现在前期投资功能受到限制的条件下,即使在区域特征明显的地区也呈现一个共同规律:尽管财产保险对经济总量不会产生明显影响,但对促进经济的平稳运行却能起到十分重要的作用。

The Influence of Property and Casualty Insurance upon GDP and its Economic Fluctuation: Based on the Hedging Model and Empirical Study in China

The inner relationship between property and casualty insurance and national economy is always an important theoretic problem.In a creative way,the paper combines the hedging principium of property insurance with the macroeconomic model that takes the damage of calamities into account.Therefore,it establishes the mathematic model of property insurance's influence to macroeconomic.By comparing the demonstration results among three provinces respectively representing China's eastern,central and western regions,it farther proves the regulation that even if in quite different regions,in case that the investing function of insurance funds is restricted,the property and casualty insurance may not influence the gross domestic product evidently,but it plays an important role in promoting the stable operation of economy.