| 中国养老保险统筹账户的财务可持续性研究——基于开放系统的测算 |
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| 引用本文： | 艾慧,张阳,杨长昱,吴延东.中国养老保险统筹账户的财务可持续性研究——基于开放系统的测算[J].财经研究,2012(2):91-101. |
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| 作者姓名： | 艾慧 张阳 杨长昱 吴延东 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海大学社会科学学院;上海大学经济学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC790003) |
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| 摘 要： | 文章运用精算估计方法,预测分析了我国城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的财务状况和财务可持续性。研究结果表明,年度支付危机会在2018-2036年之间出现,2023-2050年内源性基金累积不足值得格外关注。从长期看,如果没有外源性融资,仅靠制度本身的资金支持,统筹账户的财务可持续性难以为继。现阶段政府关注的重点应是如何扩大养老保险收入来源和完善养老保险的制度设计。
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| 关 键 词： | 养老保险 统筹账户 基金缺口 对策研究 |
Research on the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Insurance Pooling Account in China: Measurement Based on Open System |
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| AI Hui,ZHANG Yang,YANG Chang-yu,WU Yan-dong.Research on the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Insurance Pooling Account in China: Measurement Based on Open System[J].The Study of Finance and Economics,2012(2):91-101. |
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| Authors: | AI Hui ZHANG Yang YANG Chang-yu WU Yan-dong |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Social Science,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China; 2.School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China) |
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| Abstract: | By using actuarial model,this paper predicts the financial status and sustainability of the urban pension insurance pooling account in China.It concludes that a yearly payment crisis will occur between 2018 and 2036 and a lack of endogenous fund accumulation from 2023 to 2050 is worthy of special attention.In the long term,the pooling account cannot be sustainable if there is no exogenous funding.At present,governments should place emphasis on how to expand revenue source of pension insurance. |
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| Keywords: | pension insurance pooling account funding gap counteraction research |
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