技术冲击、二氧化碳排放与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟

文章通过构建包含环境约束的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了生产技术和环保技术冲击对一国主要宏观变量的影响。研究发现:(1)生产技术冲击对经济发展的促进作用是直接的、主要的,而对污染排放量的增长效应则是间接的、次要的,最优污染排放变动具有顺周期性;(2)环保技术冲击对经济的推动作用是间接的、次要的,而对污染排放量的限制作用则是直接的、主要的,最优污染排放变动具有逆周期性;(3)在两类冲击共同作用下,环保技术冲击的减排效应短期显著,而生产技术冲击的增长效应则长期占优,但两类冲击对全球污染存量变动的影响都十分微弱,经济波动周期维持在十年左右。

Technology Shocks,Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Fluctuations in China:Numerical Simulation Based on DSGE Model

This paper analyzes the effects of production and environment protection technology shocks on main macroeconomic variables in a country by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under environment constraints.The results are as follows:firstly,production technology shock has direct and main effect on the promotion of economic development and indirect and minor effect on the increase in pollution emissions;the change in optimal pollution emissions is characterized by pro-periodicity;secondly,environment protection technology shock has indirect and minor effect on the promotion of economic development and direct and main effect on the reduction in pollution emissions;the change in optimal pollution emissions is characterized by inverse periodicity;thirdly,owing to these two shocks,the effect of environment protection technology shock on the reduction in pollution emissions is significant in the short term and the effect of production technology shock on the promotion of economic development is dominant in the long term;but these two shocks have weak effects on the change in global pollution stock,and the period of economic fluctuations maintains about ten years.