| 基于MESS模型的服务业影响因素及空间溢出效应分析——以浙江省69个市县为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 邱瑾,戚振江.基于MESS模型的服务业影响因素及空间溢出效应分析——以浙江省69个市县为例[J].财经研究,2012(1):38-48,83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邱瑾 戚振江 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江财经学院数学与统计学院;浙江大学管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 全国统计科研计划项目(2009LY056);浙江省自然科学基金项目(Y6110615);浙江省重点软科学研究项目(2011C25077) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于矩阵指数空间规范(MESS)模型,文章以浙江省69个市县为例,采用Bayes方法对服务业的影响因素进行了空间计量分析。研究发现,浙江省各市县的服务业存在显著的空间相依性和空间异质性。地区的服务业从业人员比例、人口密度、工业产值以及地方财政支出占GDP的比例不仅对本地区的服务业增长有显著的促进作用,还对邻近地区的服务业有正向溢出效应;而地区的全社会固定资产投资对服务业的发展则是一个抑制性因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 服务业 MESS模型 贝叶斯估计 |
MESS Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Service Industry and Spatial Spillover Effects:Taking 69 Cities and Counties in Zhejiang Province for Example |
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| QIU Jin,QI Zhen jiang.MESS Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Service Industry and Spatial Spillover Effects:Taking 69 Cities and Counties in Zhejiang Province for Example[J].The Study of Finance and Economics,2012(1):38-48,83. |
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| Authors: | QIU Jin QI Zhen jiang |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Mathematics and Statistics,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China;2.School of Management,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the MESS model,this paper takes 69 cities and counties in Zhejiang province for example and employs Bayesian method to make a spatial econometric analysis of the influencing factors of service industry.The results show that the service industry in cities and counties in Zhejiang province is characterized by significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity.It finds that the factors such as regional employment in service industry,population density,industry output,the percent of regional fiscal expenditure in GDP,not only have positive effects on the development of local service industry,but also have positive spillover effects on neighborhood service industry.However,the regional total investment in fixed assets restricts the development of service industry. |
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| Keywords: | service industry MESS model Bayesian estimation |
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