能源税征收的劳动替代效应实证研究--基于上海市2002年大气污染的CGE模型的试算

作为政策分析的有力工具,可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibri-um,简称CGE)模型经过40多年的发展已在世界上得到广泛应用,并逐渐发展成为应用经济学的一个分支。目前,我国的CGE模型研究已取得了一些具有开拓性的成果,主要产生了有国务院发展研究中心的DRCCGE和中科院数量经济与技术研究所的PRCGEM两套CGE模型。在这些成果的基础上,文章首先分析了对煤征收能源税的重要性与必要性,随后详细介绍了采用由四大模块组成的CGE模型系统,并且给出了具体的求解处理过程。其次根据2002年上海市投入产出表数据,建立了一个地区性(上海市)可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,结果表明能源税的征收有效地推动了劳动对能源的替代,促进了经济结构和能源结构的调整,导致大气污染物的减少,同时对实际产出的影响较小,表明对煤征收能源税的可行性和合理性。最后对模型的改进提出了一些建议,为日后地区CGE模型应用及政策分析提供了一些支持。

The Simulation of CGE Model Analyzing Atmospheric Contamination of Shanghai

Computable General Equilibrium,which is short for CGE model has been developed fast in the past 40 years as a powerful analyzing tool for policy,and widely used in the applied economics nowadays.In China,we have reached some pioneering results in the use of the CGE model already.Two kinds of CGE models have been developed: one is DRCGE developed by Development Research Centre of State Department and the other is PRCGEM developed by the Chinese Science Academy.Based on these achievements,this paper establishes a local CGE model analyzing impact of levying tax of coal over Shanghai economy.At first this paper analyzes the importance and necessity of imposing tax of coal,introduces the CGE model,and then presents the detailed computing process.Finally using the 2002 input-output table of Shanghai,we calculate out the final results.The results show that the tax of energy sources effectively driving the substitution between energy sources and laboring,promoting adjustment of both economic and energetic structure,leading the reduction of atmospheric contamination,while inducing little infection to practical output,which shows the feasibility and rationality of taxing coal.At last this paper put forwards some suggestions to the amelioration of the model,which might be useful for application of CGE model and policy analysis afterwards.