政策可信性变动对菲利普斯曲线稳定性的影响——来自中国的经验证据

文章以1994年前后的价格冲击下人民银行将适应性政策转变为非适应性政策这一事件为背景,考察了公众对政策可信性的变动及其对通胀预期形成方式和菲利普斯曲线稳定性的影响。我们首先在理性预期假定下设定引入政策可信性变量的菲利普斯曲线模型。通过对"产出-物价"曲线的判断,SVAR模型中通胀冲击下通胀和产出缺口的响应函数以及菲利普斯曲线模型的递归最小二乘法检验,得出我国公众对政策的可信性增加,进而导致其通胀预期形成方式中的前向参照政策信息的成分增加,菲利普斯曲线发生改变。这就意味着,如果人民银行试图维持通胀预期形成方式和菲利普斯曲线的稳定,就应该保证政策可信性具有稳定性,而且,从长期实现价格稳定目标的角度来看,人民银行还应不断提高这一政策的可信性。

The Effect of the Change of Policy Credibility on Stability of Phillips Curve:Evidence from China

The paper explores that the change of policy credibility influences the stability of inflation expectation formation mechanism and Phillips curve when PBC adjust policy to fulfill price stability. First, under the assumption of rational expectation, our Phillips curve is added by variable of policy credibility. On these bases, in the background of monetary policy from accommodation to absence of accommodation following the price shock of 1994, judging from "output-price" curve, computing impulse response function of output and inflation in SVAR model and using recursive estimates on Phillips curve, we find that the degree of policy credibility increases, which enhances the degree of forward looking policy and influences Phillips curve. It illuminates that PBC should stabilize the policy credibility so as to maintain inflation expectation formation mechanism and Phillips curve. In the long term, the degree of policy credibility should be further improved.