中国城市化快速发展的机制研究

中国城市化进入快速发展阶段,经济全球化和经济转型深刻地影响到城市化机制。文章建立了不确定条件下农村剩余劳动力的城市化决策模型,解释了制度创新对城市化的作用模式。在对传统工业化与城市化之间数量关系进行计量分析的基础上,提出了城市化快速发展主要由第三产业推动的观点。并根据工业制成品的进出口差额,粗略估计了封闭条件下中国的工业产值,计算了国际贸易对城市化水平的贡献程度。研究表明,城市化快速发展更多依赖于国际贸易和制度创新。

A STUDY ON MECHANISM OF RAPID URBANIZATION OF CHINA

After the stage of rapid urbanization, economic globalization and transition affect the mechanism of urbanization deeply. The author, by establishing an urbanization decision-making model of rural surplus labor force under indefinite situations, tries to explain the pattern that institutional innovation to urbanization. Moreover, by making a metrological analysis on the numerical relationship between traditional industrialization and urbanization, the author promotes the opinion that the rapid development of urbanization is mainly stimulated by the tertiary industry. Then the author roughly estimates the industrial output value according to the import and export margin of industrial products and calculates the contribution of international trade to the development of urbanization. The whole research shows that rapid urbanization more depends on international trade and institutional innovation.