旅游系统市场竞争态及市场动态发展模型

文章提出了旅游系统市场竞争态(MCF)及市场动态发展模型(MDDM)。该模型不仅可以定量分析旅游市场的现实竞争态特征,对同一系统的不同市场做出定量对比和分类,并揭示每一市场竞争态是不断变化的,且为“瘦狗市场→幼童市场→明星市场→现金牛市场”过程的循环。在此基础上对市场进行趋势预测。应用这一模型,对我国近年入境旅游客流量,在Lotus1,2,3(5.0)软件上进行数据处理,建立各境外客源市场的竞争态,确定各客源地在我国入境旅游业中的市场地位,明确现在和未来市场竞争的优势和劣势,为入境旅游业发展规划提供参考依据。

THE MARKET COMPETITIVE FORM AND MARKET DYNAMIC DEVELOPING MODEL IN TOURISM SYSTEM

The market competitive form (MCF) and the market dynamic developing model.(MDDM) of tourism system are pro-posed in this paper. Using this model the regional tourism market is compartmentalized into 4 types, such as bright-star mar-ket, golden-ox market,child market and thin-dog market, this model can be used not only to analyze quantitatively the realis-tic eompetitive features in the market and make quantitative comparison and classification about different markets of the same sys-tem, but also to reveal the fact that every market competitive state is coustantly changing. On the basis of this, the tendency ofthe market can be predicted. By using this model, the statistics data of foreign tourists in recent years can be processed with"Lotus 1,2,3(5.0)" to establish the competitive state and its transference of the tourism-source-markets.