陕西省粮食单产影响因子分析及粮食灾损评估

本文从陕西粮食生产面临的严峻形势及粮食单产存在的波动性入手，运用主成分分析方法，归纳提取出本省粮食单产的四个主要影响因子，即：农业生产要素投入与热量因子，抗灾能力与水分因子，水土保持因子，旱涝保收因子，并对分析结果进行了探讨。随后，以上述分析为基础，对陕西省50年来的粮食灾损状况进行了评估。最后，分析与总结评估结果，提出了加快陕西农业稳定发展的指导性建议。

AN ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION PER HM~2 AND GRAIN LOSS EVALUATION IN SHAANXI PROVINCE

Based on the analysis of unfavorable conditions faced by agricultural development and the fluctuation of current grain production per hm 2 in Shaanxi Province, four factors which are responsible for the steady development of grain production are put forward and formulated in this article, i.e. the unstable agricultural input, climatic fluctuation, disaster-resistant ability of the grain and water-soil preservation etc., using the method of Principle Component Analysis (PCA). Then the annual losses of grain from 1950 to 1998 are evaluated and the time series of the percentage change in grain loss are subsequently analyzed. In the end, some conclusions are drawn and suggestions are come up with to ensure a promising development of agriculture in Shaanxi.