烟台地区耕地资源态势及宏观驱动力研究

利用改革开放20多年来烟台地区耕地统计资料和近5年土地详查与变更数据，研究揭示了该区耕地资源利用与变化的基本特征，耕地数量变化的基本过程、空间差异及耕地流向，初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子及其影响机制，得出以下结论：①20多年来，烟台地区耕地数量呈明显的波动减少趋势，经历了缓慢减少一急剧减少一缓慢减少的变化过程，并在1985年前后、1987—1990年和1991—1993年出现了3次明显的耕地流失高峰；②耕地的主要流向是工矿用地、居民点和各类交通用地以及果园，耕地的增加主要是未利用土地的开垦和工矿用地的整理与复垦；③经济发展、人口增长和政策是耕地面积变化的主要宏观驱动因子，耕地数量变化过程中的明显突变与国家宏观政策背景相关联，耕地快速减少在发生时间上与经济的过热增长基本同步，在空间分布上与地区经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致；此外，人口增加对耕地减少的驱动也不可忽视。

SITUATION AND MACRO-DRIVING FORCE FOR CHANGES IN ARABLE-LAND RESOURCE IN YANTAI REGION

This paper has revealed the characteristics of arable-land resources and utilization, the basic process and regional difference of change in arable-land area according to the statistics data of arable-land area during the past 20 odd years of the reform and opening to the outside world and detailed-investigation of land use during the recent five years. Also, the driving mechanism for the changes in the cultivated land area is discussed. The main conclusions are shown below: (1) There is a trend of obvious fluctuant decrease in arable-land area during the past 20 odd years. The changes of arable-land undergo the process from gently decrease to steep decrease to slow decrease. During the process, there are three height periods of decrease in arable-land: round about 1985, 1987 to 1990 and 1991 to 1993 respectively. (2) The decreased arable-land is mainly inverted to project and mine land, residential area, all kinds of traffic lands and orchard. The increased arable-land mainly comes from exploitation and reclamation of non-utilized land and arrangement and resuming of project and mine land. (3) The economic development, population growth and policy are the dominant macro-driving factors in decrease of cultivated land area in Yantai. The obvious break during the change process of arable-land is related to the national macro-policies. The rapid decrease of cultivated land area coincided in time with the overheated economic growth resulting from the direct investment in fixed assets. Spatial distribution of the decrease in arable-land matched the differences in speed and scale of economic growth between different regions of Yantai area. Furthermore, the decrease in arable-land because of population increase cannot be ignored.