中国城市人口可比增长速度的空间差异(1949──1995)

本文川计算城市人口可比增长速度的方法．分三个阶段检验了我国城市人口增长速度的总体状况和空间差异.认为城市人口增长速度呈明显的马鞍形，大城市增长速度波动最大，与决策者的认识与愿望不一致。通过三个阶段快速增长城市和缓慢增长城市分布的分析、认为东中西之间和南北之间的差异都很明显。我国城市发展的重点，第一阶段在西部．第二阶段在中部、第三阶段在东部。南方城市的增长速度在第一阶段远远落后于北方。第二阶段差距有所缩小．第三阶段南方城市接近或超过了北方城市。东部快于中西部．南方快于北方的趋势仍在继续。城市人口增长速度空间差异的变化与我国宏观经济发展方针的转变相一致。

ON SPATIAL DISPARITY OF COMPARABLE INCREASE SPEED OF CHINA'S URBAN SIZE, 1949 -1995

Since 1949 Chinese cities have increased siginificantly both in size and number. On the basis of the calculation of comparable increase speed of cities' population. the general character and spatial disparity of Chinese urban development are analyzed in tree periods as 1949-1957. 1957-1978 and 1978-1995 in this paper.As the increase rate of urban population is affected by the size of cities. all the cities are put into four groups by their non-agriculture population in each period. and the cities in each group in every period are classified into three grades as with high.middle and low increase speed according to their increase rate. Then the distributions of the cities with a high and low increase speed are both discussed.As a conclusion the thesis indicates that:(1)The increase speed of China's urban population in the three periods typically shapes as a saddle. i. e.. the speed in the first and third period is higher and in the secoud period is lower. (2)The large cities with a population of more than one millon and 0. 5-1 million have a typical fluctuation which is not what the policymaker had thought as and wishes to be. (3) The key area of urban development in the period of 1949-1937 was west China. then the middle area. and since 1978 under the open and reform policy east China has become the key area. (4)The cities in the northern part of China have a far higher increase speed than the those in the southern part in the first period. the cities in south and north area are of about the same speed in growth in the second period. while the south cities develop faster than the north ones after 1978. (5) The cities in east China are remaining 'a higher developing speed than those in west area. and so do the south cities than the north ones. (6)The changes of spatial disparity of cities' population growth are similar to the tranform of macro economic policy in China.Keywods: population size of cities: comparable increase speed: spatial disparity