1990—2010年中国人口预期寿命与人均GDP的相关关系及其变化特征

预期寿命是反映人口寿命水平的重要指标,人均GDP是反映经济发展的重要指标。采用相关分析和回归分析对中国1990—2010年市域、县域两个尺度的预期寿命与人均GDP的关系进行分析,结果表明:人均GDP对预期寿命具有显著正向影响,但累积影响强于即时影响;人均GDP超过3000~5000元后,其对预期寿命的影响开始出现边际递减效应;人均GDP对预期寿命的影响强度在空间分布上自东向西增强。由于经济相对发达的东部地区人均GDP对预期寿命的贡献率要小于经济相对落后的西部地区,因此,今后东部地区应通过完善社会保障、优化卫生资源配置、倡导健康生活方式等途径进一步提高预期寿命,西部地区则应大力发展区域经济,努力提高生活水平,以尽快缩小与东部地区预期寿命的差距。

Correlation and Its Changing Characteristics of China's Population Life Expectancy and GDP Per Capita from 1990 to 2010

Life expectancy is an important indicator reflecting human-life level,and GDP per capita is an important indicator reflecting economic development.Based on the methods of correlation analysis and regression analysis,this paper analyzes the relationship between life expectancy and GDP per capita at the both prefecture and county levels in China from 1990 to 2010.The results shows that:GDP per capita has a significant positive impact on life expectancy,but the cumulative impact is stronger than the immediate impact;after GDP per capita exceeds 3000~5000 yuan,its impact on life expectancy begins to decline marginally;the impact of GDP per capita on life expectancy increases from east to west in spatial distribution.Because the contribution rate of GDP per capita to life expectancy in the developed eastern region is less than that in the developing western region,therefore,the eastern region should further improve life expectancy by improving social security,optimizing health resources allocation and advocating healthy lifestyle,while the western region should make every effort to develop regional economy and strive to improve living standards so as to reduce the gap of life expectancy between the western and the eastern regions as soon as possible in the future.