中国粮食自给率与耕地资源安全底线的探讨

首先就粮食属性、粮食饥馑、粮食禁运、粮食贸易等与粮食安全密切相关的问题进行了深刻反思,并通过对国际国内粮食消费、粮食生产和粮食贸易的发展态势分析,探讨了中国适度粮食自给率的问题,由此提出当前中国粮食自给率目标以90%左右为宜。在此基础上,通过估算预期粮食综合生产能力,以人均粮食需求量420kg,粮食自给率达到90%为情景,确定我国近期适宜的耕地资源安全底线是人均0.056hm2。同时指出不同地区的人均粮食消费量不同,粮食自给率也会有区别,所以各地需要制定区域性或省级的耕地资源安全底线标准。

ANALYSIS ON THE GRAIN SELF-SUFFICIENT RATIO AND THE SAFE BASELINE OF CULTIVATED LAND IN CHINA

Firstly the author considers some problems carefully that correlate with food security such as grain attribute, grain famine, grain embargo and grain trade. Then grain self-sufficient ratio is discussed through the analysis on the development of consumption, yield, and trade of grain in the world. As a result, the authors put forward moderate grain self-sufficient ratio(90%). Based on forecast analysis such as the quantity of cultivated lands' area and grain's potential yield, and scenario analysis of grain demand per capital (420 kg) and grain self-sufficient ratio (90%), the safe baseline of cultivated land in the whole county and sub regions in 2010 are calculated. The result showed that the whole country's average safe baseline of cultivated land is 0.056hm~2 per capita. For various sub-regional condition and grain consumption capacity per capital are different, it is important to build different safe baseline of cultivated land in regional or provincial scale