入境旅游客源市场结构实证分析——以江苏省为例

运用SSM分析方法，选取江苏省2001年-2009年相关入境旅游统计数据，对江苏省入境旅游市场结构变化进行分析。研究表明：江苏省入境旅游客源市场中，法国、意大利、新加坡和泰国客源市场基础较好，具有较强的竞争力；中国台湾、日本、印度尼西亚、韩国、美国、加拿大、英国、德国、澳大利亚和其他客源市场基础也较好，但竞争能力更具显著优势；除其他地区之外，马来西亚市场基础最好，然而竞争潜力却较弱；中国香港、中国澳门、菲律宾和俄罗斯原有市场基础相对于其理想规模，市场基础较差，但其竞争能力相对优势明显。从整体上看，由于江苏省入境旅游客源市场结构效果指数和竞争力效果指数均大于1，说明现阶段江苏省市场结构相对合理，并且具有一定的入境旅游客源市场竞争优势，同时结合相应的Shift—Share分析图表，给出了不同结构状态下江苏省入境旅游营销策略。

An Empirical Analysis of Tourist Structure in the Inbound Tourism Market Based on SSM Model A Case Study on Jiangsu Province

The shift-share method(SSM) is an important method that inspects regional economic structure evolutionary trend.This paper uses SSM to analyze tourist structural changes of inbound tourism market,by selecting 2001-2009 statistics related to inbound tourism about Jiangsu province.Empirical studies indicate that France,Italy,Singapore and Thailand have good source markets and strong competitiveness;Taiwan,Japan,Indonesia,Korea,USA,Canada,UK,Germany,Australia and other areas are as the better market-based source with a stronger competitive;In addition to other areas,Malaysian is as a better market-based source with a weak competitive;Hong Kong,Macau,the Philippines and Russia are as the poor market-based source compared to their ideal size,but their competitive advantages.Overall,Structural effect index and competitive effect index of inbound tourism market in Jiangsu Province are greater than 1,indicating that tourist structure in the inbound tourism market is at a relatively reasonable structure and has some competitive advantage about inbound tourism market.All the same time,combined with corresponding shift-share chart,this paper shows inbound tourism marketing strategies under different structures.