现代工业型与传统资源型城市能源消耗碳排放的对比分析——以无锡市与包头市为例

以现代工业型与传统资源型城市为研究对象，选取包头市与无锡市为代表进行对比，采用对数平均权重分解法对能源消耗引起的碳排放量进行分解，探究两种类型城市碳排放特征与驱动因素的异同。研究认为：①两种类型城市经济发展同碳排放量协同增长，碳排放效率逐年减小，离绝对减排的目标相差较远。新型工业城市具有高GDP低碳排放的特点，且碳排放量趋于稳定；传统资源型城市具有低GDP高碳排放的特点，碳排放强度、减排空间和潜力均大于前者，且碳排放量有进一步增大的潜力。②以煤为主的能源消费结构在短期内很难得到有效改善，使得能源结构调整收效不大；能源效率的提高对碳排放量起到了微弱的抑制作用；经济发展对碳排放贡献一直保持高位。③发展方式转变和产业结构提升，是工业城市尤其是资源型工业城市发展低碳经济的主要路径。

Comparisons and Analysis of the Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption between the Resources-Based Industrial Citie and The Modern Industrial City -- A Case Study on Wuxi and Baotou

This paper uses decomposition method of LMDI(Logarithmic mean weight decomposition method) on carbon emissions caused by energy decomposition to inquires the similarities and differences on emission characteristic and influence factor between two kinds of urbans,the traditional resource-based industrial city and the modern industrial city.And this paper selects Wuxi and Baotou on the contrastive analysis for representative.The study found that: ① Carbon emissions growth was coordination with economic development,and Carbon emission efficiency decrease gradually,but far behind the absolute emission reduction target.The modern industrialization city has the characteristics of low Carbon and high GDP,Carbon emissions become stable gradually.The resourceful city has the characteristics of high Carbon and low GDP;intensity of Carbon emissions,reduction of space and the potential are larger than the former,and Carbon emissions rising trend is obvious.②The mix of primary energy with high proportion of coal is difficult to improve in short term,energy structure adjustment have little effect;energy efficiency improvement plays a negligible part to reduce Carbon emissions;the contribution rate of economic development to Carbon emissions always kept high.③Industrial cities,especially resource—based industrial cities,should change the economic growth mode and change industrial structure to control and reduce the carbon dioxide emission effectively.