中国地级及以上城市“四化”水平对绿色发展的空间计量分析

提高绿色发展水平是建设生态文明、促进经济转型的重要途径。文章综合运用熵权TOPSIS模型、空间自相关分析、空间杜宾模型(SDM)等方法,分析了2003-2016年我国279个地级及以上城市绿色发展水平时空分异格局及工业化、城镇化、信息化、农业现代化(以下简称"四化")发展对其影响,结果发现:①2003-2016年城市绿色发展呈现稳进上升的趋势,社会进步逐渐取代经济发展成为城市绿色发展的主力军;空间分布上,京津冀、长三角、珠三角等地绿色发展水平较高,黑龙江、安徽、河南、四川等地则相对较低。②由于西部生态文明水平发展迅猛,而中部出现经济、社会、生态不协调发展状态,城市绿色发展水平从"东部>中部>西部"逐渐演变为"东部>西部>中部"。③城市绿色发展呈现显著的空间集聚特征,且集聚程度不断增强,低值聚集区存在一定程度的空间锁定。④整体上"四化"发展对绿色发展皆起促进作用,其中信息化影响最为显著,工业化次之。

The Impact of"Four Modernizations"on Green Development in Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities:A Spatial Econometric Analysis

Improving the level of green development is an important way to build an ecological civilization and promote economic transformation.This paper examines the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns and domain factors of green development in 279 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2003 to 2016 using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial panel econometric model.The results were as follows.Firstly,during 2003-2016,urban green development showed a steady upward trend,and social progress gradually replaced economic development as the main force of improving urban green development.The level of green development in places such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta is relatively high,while Heilongjiang,Anhui,Henan,Sichuan are relatively low.Secondly,due to the rapid development of ecological civilization in the west,the level of green development pattern gradually evolved from"eastern>central>western"to"eastern>western>central".Third,the changing curve of Moran’s I indicated that the level of green development has a continued strengthening tendency of spatial agglomeration at municipal scale.The city with lower values appeared to be space-locked to some extent.Fourthly,according to the analysis of spatial panel econometric model,it can be found that Industrialization,Urbanization,Informatization and Agricultural-modernization all have a significant positive impact on the green development,in which Informationization has the most significant impact,followed by Industrialization.