休闲农业对农村经济发展贡献及影响机制——以全国休闲农业与乡村旅游示范县为例

休闲农业是实现我国乡村内生发展和乡村振兴有效手段。利用2007—2016年全国1382个县的县级面板数据,以2010年首批全国休闲农业与乡村旅游示范县为研究对象,设定示范县评定为外部政策冲击点,使用PSM-DID方法对示范县经济效应进行评价,分析政策影响的动态效应和边际效益,检验模型的稳健性,阐明了休闲农业发展的影响机制。研究表明:①休闲农业对地区经济的贡献显著,设立示范县时间越长,经济贡献越来越大。②休闲农业示范县边际效益递减,后期进入的示范县经济贡献逐渐减弱,越来越趋向于规模带动效益的增长。③休闲农业主要通过财政手段作用于地区经济,对农村产业结构调整的作用具有滞后性。

The Contribution and Influence Mechanism of Leisure Agriculture to Rural Economic Development:Taking the National Demonstration County of Leisure Agriculture and Rural Tourism as an Example

Leisure agriculture is an effective means to realize the endogenous development and rural revitalization in China.Based on the panel data of 1,382 counties from 2007 to 2016,this paper took the first batch of national demonstration counties for leisure agriculture and rural tourism in 2010 as the research object,set the demonstration counties as external policy impact points,and evaluated the economic effect of demonstration counties by using the PSMDID method.Furthermore,the dynamic effect and marginal benefit of policy influence are analyzed,the robustness of the model is tested,and the economic influence mechanism of leisure agriculture development is analyzed.The research shows that:1)leisure agriculture to the contribution of the regional economy is significant,the longer the establishment of the model county and the economic contribution is increasing.2)leisure agriculture model county marginal benefit decline,later into the model county economic contribution gradually weakened,more and more tend to scale to drive the growth of benefits.3)leisure agriculture mainly acts on the regional economy through financial means,and plays a lagging role in the adjustment of rural industrial structure.