中国分县城乡人口老龄化时空差异与机理

以人口普查数据为支撑,刻画中国城乡人口老龄化时序演变特征,利用探索性空间数据分析技术研究县域城乡老年人口空间差异与关联性,并结合空间回归模型对差异背后的机制进行解析。主要结论为:①城乡老年人口绝对量总体呈增长态势,不考虑政策因素带来统计口径差异的影响,乡村老年人口始终高于城市,但增速较缓。②然而,乡村较城市率先进入老龄化社会且速度快于城市,老龄化"城乡倒置"呈现"缩小-再扩大"的阶段性特征。③城市老龄化以东北三省、苏北及川渝为甚,乡村老龄化呈"三足鼎立"之势,以乡城人口流迁主导的城乡差异格局开始凸显,具体围绕长江三角洲、川渝、呼包鄂榆城市群郊县分布。城乡老龄化空间集聚特征显著,乡村集聚性大于城市,区域不均衡较城市更明显。④新时期,人口迁移构成城乡人口老龄化区域差异的关键因素,社会文化因素、人口因素对城乡人口老龄化影响各异,经济因素影响不显著。文章旨在为新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略背景下的城乡人口统筹发展指明方向,为城乡后社会主义老龄化理论探索提供依据。

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Mechanism of Urban and Rural Population Ageing in China

Based on the data from six censuses since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban and rural population ageing in different counties were studied,and the spatial distribution of urban and rural ageing was detected by exploratory data analysis technology.Combined with spatial regression model,the mechanism behind the phenomenon is analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:1)The absolute amount of urban and rural elderly population is generally increasing.Regardless of the influence of statistical factors,the rural elderly population is always higher than the urban,but the growth rate is slower.2)However,rural population is the first to enter an ageing society and faster than urban.The phenomenon of ageing"urban and rural inversion"is still continuing,and it presents a stage characteristic of"reduction-re-expansion".3)Urban ageing is dominated by three northeastern provinces,northern Jiangsu and Sichuan and Chongqing.The ageing of rural population shows a trend of"three legs",Sichuan and Chongqing,Yangtze River Delta,Hubao Eyu urban agglomerations form a regional elderly population agglomeration center.The spatial agglomeration characteristics of urban and rural ageing are significant,the rural agglomeration is larger than the urban,and the regional imbalance is more obvious than urban.4)In the new period,the spatial mechanism of urban and rural ageing is significantly different.Immigration rate,proportion of non-agricultural population,and illiteracy rate constitute the main drivers of urban ageing;rural ageing is mainly affected by emigration rate,illiteracy rate,birth rate and mortality;economic factors have no significant effect on urban and rural ageing.The purpose of this paper is to point out the direction of the overall development of urban and rural population under the background of new urbanization and rural rejuvenation strategy,and to provide basis for the theoretical exploration of socialist ageing after urban and rural areas.