基于灰色系统模型的城乡建设用地规模预测——以常德市鼎城区为例

土地利用总体规划是区域性的综合规划,为地方性的经济发展提供科学和法律依据.建设用地的有效供给是地方经济发展基础,建设用地需求量预测是土地利用总体规划编制的核心,也是土地利用管理的依据.为了切实搞好常德市鼎城区的土地利用总体规划,使之更具有前瞻性、可操作性,必须切合实际地搞好建设用地需求规模和布局的预测.采用灰色系统模型,通过灰色关联度分析,建设用地发展与GDP、总人口、市镇人口、社会固定资产投资、人均GDP、第二产业产值、第三产业产值密切相关.基于这些因子,采用灰色系统模型法、建立GM(1,1)灰色模型,进行了2010年和2020年的城乡建设用地规模的预测.GM(1,1)模型可以进行长期预测,但预测仅反映一种趋势,综合考虑驱动因素的灰色线性组合模型更具有预测的可靠性.利用GM(1,1)模型和线性模型组合,进行城乡建设用地规模预测,可为土地利用总体规划提供可靠的保证.

SCALE FORECAST OF URBAN CONSTRUCTION LAND BASED ON GRAY SYSTEM MODEL: A CASE STUDY FROM DINGCHENG DISTRICT IN CHANGDE CITY

The general land use planning is a comprehensive regional plan for local economic development to provide scientific and legal basis.Local economic development is the basis for the effective supply of constructive land.Land demand forecast prepared by the overall planning of land use,and is also the basis for land-use management.To do a good job in Changde City's general land use planning,make it more far-sighted,operational,good to be realistic scale of the land demand forecast.By gray correlation analysis,constructive land demand is closely related with GDP,the total population,the town population,investment in fixed assets,GDP per capita,output value of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.Based on these factors,conducted the forecast scale of constructive land in 2010 and 2020 by meanw of.Predicted that the total size of land for construction of 26 500hm2 2010 gray model,GM(1,1) model.Combination of GM(1,1) model and the linear regression model,the scale forecast of urban constructive land use is a reliable guarantee for the general land use planning.