我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析

文章用较为详实的资料，对中国近15年城市土地扩张的基本态势及其3个影响因子，即人口、经济增长和城市环境改善的内在作用机制进行了分析。近15年来，中国城市建成区土地面积年均扩张速度为850km^2。单因子回归分析表明，城市用地(城市建成区)扩张与城市人口和GDP皆呈高度正相关关系；但通过偏相关分析发现，GDP增长更能解释城市用地的扩张，经济增长是城市用地扩展最重要、最根本的驱动因素。随着经济发展和收入的增加，人们对城市居住环境的要求提高，这也将刺激城市对土地的需求。

AN ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES OF URBAN LAND EXPANSION IN CHINA

This paper analyzes the processes of urban expansion and quantifies its relationship with economic development and population growth during the last 15 years in China, using partial correlation and regression approaches. The results show that the total urban land areas are linearly increased in the last 15 years, and highly related to the growth of GDP and urban population of the whole country, and land requirement for the improvement of urban environment. The more detailed results include that: firstly, during the last 15 years, the land areas of urban built - up area annually go up in the speed of about 850km2; secondly, in the case of controlling for variable of ln( GDP) , the partial correlation coefficient between the areas of urban built - up area and urban population is only 0,0197; on the contrary, in the case of controlling for variable of urban population, the partial correlation coefficient between the land area of urban built - up areas and In( GDP) is 0.6335. So, development of economy can better explain the expansion of urban land use than urban population; thirdly, the economy development is the strongest driving force on the urban land expansion, it can not only directly drive the expansion of urban land use, but also indirectly affect it through urban population and urban environment.