城市密集区人口变动研究——以长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和京津唐地区为例

利用第三、四和五次全国人口普查资料,对长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和京津唐地区人口增长和空间分布的变化过程进行分析.研究表明,自1980年代以来,各城市密集区人口增长速度加快,人口规模不断扩大;空间分布变化幅度大,总的趋势是集中化、不均衡化;人口变动状况具有阶段性差异;外来人口的迁移流入是人口变动的主导因素.在此基础上,探讨了城市密集区发展过程中的人口演化趋势以及人口变动规律,其结论是:城市密集区人口变动遵循逻辑斯蒂增长规律、波动推进规律、圈层扩散与等级扩散规律,人口增长将由高速到低速,人口分布将由集中化迈向相对地均衡化.

STUDY ON THE CHANGES OF POPULATION OF THE URBAN AGGLOMERATION AREAS——THE CASE OF YANGTZE RIVER DELTA,PEARL RIVER DELTA AND BEIJING- TIANJIN- TANGSHAN REGION

Based on the data of the third,fourth and fifth national population censuses in China,this paper analyzes the change of population growth and spatial distribution of Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Region.Research shows that since 1980s,the population growth in urban agglomeration areas has accelerated,the population scale has been expanding continuously;the population distribution has changed to a great extent,of which the general trends are centralization;the states of the population change have phased differences;the main factor of the population change is the immigration.Based on those,the paper also tries to discuss the trend and the law of population change in the development process of urban agglomeration area.It comes to the conclusion as follows: the population change of urban agglomeration area comply with laws of Logist Curve,wave moving,circle expanding and grade spreading;the population growth will slow down in the long run;the distribution will step into a relative equilibrium finally.