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重庆市建设用地预测模型探讨
引用本文:邱道持.重庆市建设用地预测模型探讨[J].经济地理,1996,16(3):10-15.
作者姓名:邱道持
作者单位:西南师范大学地理系 重庆630715
摘    要:运用灰色系统分析方法预测城市建设用地是可行的.为满足建模要求,应以城市建设用地存量为基础,采用累加方法建立生成数列.1991—2000年重庆市建设用地预测模型为X_(t+1)=115626.4538e~(+0.094382941t)-104572.0538,平均每年城市建设用地增量为1727.88ha,预测结果符合该市土地利用总体规划控制目标.

关 键 词:建设用地  预测模型  重庆市  城市土地  土地利用

INQUIRE INTO THE PREDICTING MODEL OF URBAN BUILDING LAND IN CHONGQING CITY
Qiu Daochi.INQUIRE INTO THE PREDICTING MODEL OF URBAN BUILDING LAND IN CHONGQING CITY[J].Economic Geography,1996,16(3):10-15.
Authors:Qiu Daochi
Abstract:It is available to predict the urban building-land by the analytical method of gray system. In order to form the Predicting model, the preservative area of the urban building -land is put as the basis on which the growing line is formed by summation. In Chongqing City, the predicting model of urban building-land, from 1991 to 2000, is that X(1)(t+1)= 115626. 4538e + 0.094382941t-104572. 0538, and the mean growing area of urban building-land is 1728.88ha in one year. This predictive result accords completely with the controlling aim of the land use planning of Chongqing City.
Keywords:building land  predicting model  gray system  Chongqing City  
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