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Logistic模型参数估计与我国城市化水平预测
引用本文:王远飞,张超.Logistic模型参数估计与我国城市化水平预测[J].经济地理,1997,17(4):8-13.
作者姓名:王远飞  张超
作者单位:华东师范大学地理系!上海,200062,华东师范大学地理系!上海,200062
摘    要:本文探讨了Logistic模型描述城市化过程中的合理性.提出模型参数估计的新方法.计算和预测了我国的城市化水平及其发展趋势。新方法简单实用,预测精度高。

关 键 词:Logistic模型  参数估计  城市化  预测  中国

URBANZATION PREDICTION IN CHINA WITH DEVELOPMENT PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHOD OF LOGISTIC MODEL
Wang Yuanfei, Zhang Chao.URBANZATION PREDICTION IN CHINA WITH DEVELOPMENT PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHOD OF LOGISTIC MODEL[J].Economic Geography,1997,17(4):8-13.
Authors:Wang Yuanfei  Zhang Chao
Abstract:In this paper the suitablity of using Logistic Model to simulate the process of urbanizations was discussed. a new method for estimate the parameters of Logistic Model was developed,Compare to the ordinary least squre method,this new method issimpler and with higher precision. Based on Logistic Model, the trend of urbanization in future was predicted-we find that the process of urbanization will speed in the period of 2010.
Keywords:Logistic Model: parameters estimation  urbanization  prediction
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