近20年来我国城市化发展速度的省区间比较--基于"五普"口径的修正

首先运用联合国法．以“五普”口径为标准．以各省区历年的非农人口为基础．系统构建了三普以来全国各省区历年的城市化水平：进而采用修正后的城市化水平数据．通过回归分析和相关性分析，从空间分布和时间序列变化两个方面分析了近20年来我国城市化发展速度的省区间差异。通过分析发现，我国1980年代城市化发展速度整体上呈现“东高西低”的格局，1990年代呈现“南高北低”的格局；20年来各省区间的城市化发展具有同步性，但发展速度的波动性不同．总体表现为城市化水平越高，波动性越小：最后对导致城市化发展速度差异的因素进行了初彤分析．

THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF URBANIZATION SPEED AMONG CHINESE PROVINCES IN RECENT 20 YEARS--RECONSTRUCTION BASED ON THE FIFTH POPULATION CENSUS

Based on data of the fifth population census and using an United Nations method, this paper firstly reconstruted comparable timeseries data on the levels of urbanization of each province in China since the third population census. Then based on the comparable time - series data , authors made a comparative analysis of urbanization speed among Chinese provinces in recent 20 years by using linear regression and correlation analysis from the view of special distribution and time series. The result showed that the urbanization speed was getting slower and slower froln the East to the West in 1980s and from the South to the North in 1990s. and we also found the characteristics of synchronization and fluctuation in the process of urbanization among Chinese provinces in recent 20 years. Finally authors gave some reasons for those characteristies.